Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 6 Nov 2010 00:42:25 -0500

173 
FXPQ60 PGUM 060542
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
342 PM CHST SAT NOV 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RIPPLING WESTWARD THRU
THE MARIANAS...ENHANCING SHOWERS A BIT AS IT PASSES. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF AGAIN EAST OF ABOUT 148E...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EVIDENT
BEYOND THAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...NO REAL
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS HITS THE ISLANDS PRETTY HARD
WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...BUT SEEMS OVERDONE. TO
BE SURE...SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT ON RADAR THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN TONIGHT.
SO HAVE GONE WITH 30 PCT POP THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO ISOLATED
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRADES AND SEAS SHOULD SLACKEN OFF
SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN PICK UP AGAIN TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MARSHALLS IN A BAND BETWEEN
6N AND 10N FROM JUST EAST OF KOSRAE TO BEYOND THE DATELINE. MODELS
ARE UNANIMOUS IN KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAJURO THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE CONVECTION DISSIPATES. KOSRAE WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS
SHOWS SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF KOSRAE...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
LENDS MORE SUPPORT TO THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH SHOWERS ON LATITUDE
WITH KOSRAE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REACH POHNPEI BY MONDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO PULL OUT OF CHUUK...BUT A SLOW-MOVING 
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP SHOWERS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE 
AREA FOR TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN 
MICRONESIA WILL INTRODUCE MORE SHOWERS TO THE CHUUK AREA BY TUESDAY. 
THE RIDGE NEAR YAP AND PALAU IS SHIFTING WESTWARD...ALLOWING
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO MOVE OVER YAP. A TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
GUAM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE IN PLACING SCATTERED SHOWERS AT PALAU SO HAVE
PUSHED THEIR ARRIVAL TIME TO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

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