From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Nov 6 13:42:49 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA65gmPk030851 for ; Sat, 6 Nov 2010 13:42:48 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA63wVWm028721; Sat, 6 Nov 2010 00:42:32 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4239751 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 6 Nov 2010 00:42:32 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA65gV1Q020544 for ; Sat, 6 Nov 2010 00:42:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA65gP1C027420 for ; Sat, 6 Nov 2010 00:42:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 4B5A8405001E; Sat, 6 Nov 2010 00:42:25 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101106054225.4B5A8405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 6 Nov 2010 00:42:25 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 173 FXPQ60 PGUM 060542 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 342 PM CHST SAT NOV 6 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE SHOWS A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RIPPLING WESTWARD THRU THE MARIANAS...ENHANCING SHOWERS A BIT AS IT PASSES. SHOWERS TAPER OFF AGAIN EAST OF ABOUT 148E...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EVIDENT BEYOND THAT. && .DISCUSSION... EXCEPT FOR THE LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...NO REAL CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS HITS THE ISLANDS PRETTY HARD WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...BUT SEEMS OVERDONE. TO BE SURE...SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT ON RADAR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN TONIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH 30 PCT POP THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO ISOLATED THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRADES AND SEAS SHOULD SLACKEN OFF SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN PICK UP AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MARSHALLS IN A BAND BETWEEN 6N AND 10N FROM JUST EAST OF KOSRAE TO BEYOND THE DATELINE. MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAJURO THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE CONVECTION DISSIPATES. KOSRAE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF KOSRAE...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY LENDS MORE SUPPORT TO THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH SHOWERS ON LATITUDE WITH KOSRAE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REACH POHNPEI BY MONDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO PULL OUT OF CHUUK...BUT A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP SHOWERS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL INTRODUCE MORE SHOWERS TO THE CHUUK AREA BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE NEAR YAP AND PALAU IS SHIFTING WESTWARD...ALLOWING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO MOVE OVER YAP. A TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF GUAM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SLOWER THAN BEFORE IN PLACING SCATTERED SHOWERS AT PALAU SO HAVE PUSHED THEIR ARRIVAL TIME TO MONDAY NIGHT. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.