From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Nov 7 05:43:12 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA6LhAVb014584 for ; Sun, 7 Nov 2010 05:43:11 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA63wVq4028721; Sat, 6 Nov 2010 16:42:57 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4244882 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 6 Nov 2010 16:42:56 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA6Lguiv010788 for ; Sat, 6 Nov 2010 16:42:56 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA6LgoB3023380 for ; Sat, 6 Nov 2010 16:42:56 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 26575405001E; Sat, 6 Nov 2010 16:42:50 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101106214250.26575405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 6 Nov 2010 16:42:50 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 558 FXPQ60 PGUM 062142 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 742 AM CHST SUN NOV 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME ON THE WAY IN. && .DISCUSSION... GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES MODELS SHOW THE MARIANAS REMAINING UNDER TRADE-WIND FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FEATURES TO SHAKE LOOSE THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE THE INHERITED FORECAST OF ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. JUST TWEAKED THE SWELL HEIGHT FOR TODAY DOWN TO 6 FEET BASED ON THE IPAN BUOY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND TROUGH HAS FORMED OVER MAJURO AND TO THE EAST OF THE MARSHALLS WITH MODELS SHOWING CONTINUED WET CONDITIONS OVER MAJURO THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOSRAE TONIGHT AND POHNPEI BEGINNING MONDAY. HOWEVER...APPEARS EVENT WILL NOT LAST AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER MAJURO AND KOSRAE AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD IN PRECIP DURATION IN THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING TIMING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS PASSING OVER YAP IS BRINGING A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS NORTHWEST OF YAP WITH CLEARING SEEN ON IR IMAGERY AS THE STRATIFORM PRECIP COMES TO AN END THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE BACK SIDE OF TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST...IT SHOULD AFFECT KOROR STARTING MONDAY. FOR CHUUK...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE TROUGH NEARING KOSRAE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.