Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 6 Nov 2010 16:42:50 -0500

558 
FXPQ60 PGUM 062142
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
742 AM CHST SUN NOV 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WATERS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME ON THE WAY
IN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES MODELS SHOW THE MARIANAS REMAINING UNDER
TRADE-WIND FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FEATURES TO SHAKE LOOSE
THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE THE INHERITED FORECAST
OF ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. JUST TWEAKED THE SWELL HEIGHT
FOR TODAY DOWN TO 6 FEET BASED ON THE IPAN BUOY. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND TROUGH HAS FORMED OVER 
MAJURO AND TO THE EAST OF THE MARSHALLS WITH MODELS SHOWING 
CONTINUED WET CONDITIONS OVER MAJURO THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A 
STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOSRAE TONIGHT AND 
POHNPEI BEGINNING MONDAY. HOWEVER...APPEARS EVENT WILL NOT LAST AS 
LONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OVER MAJURO AND KOSRAE AS MODELS HAVE 
TRENDED DOWNWARD IN PRECIP DURATION IN THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL 
RUNS. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING TIMING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...LITTLE 
CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS PASSING OVER YAP IS BRINGING A ROUND OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS 
NORTHWEST OF YAP WITH CLEARING SEEN ON IR IMAGERY AS THE STRATIFORM 
PRECIP COMES TO AN END THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO 
REDEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE BACK SIDE OF TROUGH MOVES OVER THE 
AREA. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST...IT SHOULD AFFECT KOROR STARTING
MONDAY. FOR CHUUK...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
TROUGH NEARING KOSRAE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS

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