Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Nov 2010 00:42:41 -0500

046 
FXPQ60 PGUM 070542
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
342 PM CHST SUN NOV 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ESE OF THE
MARIANAS...FROM ABOUT 10N145E TO 13N150E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT OUT BETWEEN 148E AND 151E...WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES
BETWEEN THAT AND GUAM. EAST OF 151E...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS ARE NOT VERY DEFINITE ON BRINGING SHOWERS
THRU OVERNIGHT...BUT THE GFS DOES BRING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME
RAINFALL IN MAINLY AFTER 12Z. IN ANY CASE THE TROUGH IS QUITE
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND APPEARS READY TO BRING ANOTHER
LOW-END SCATTERED-SHOWERS EPISODE TO THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...AT A
30 PCT POP LEVEL. LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL MAKE MONDAY PARTLY
SUNNY...BUT AFTER THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS SHOULD DRY QUITE A BIT.
THUS...ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS FROM EAST OF POHNPEI TO BEYOND THE 
DATELINE HAS KEPT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER EASTERN
MICRONESIA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHOWERS PUSHING WESTWARD WITH ARRIVAL AT KOSRAE THIS EVENING AND
POHNPEI LATE TONIGHT. MODELS MOVE THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF
MAJURO BY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE KEEPING KOSRAE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF CONVECTION. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION WILL SUBSIDE NEAR KOSRAE EARLIER THAN THE MODELS SHOW.
HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STRONGER IN KEEPING SHOWERS AT
POHNPEI THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST HAVE LEFT WEAK RIDGING AND 
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AT CHUUK. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE 
TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI APPROACHES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF...MODELS BRING SHOWERS TO AN END BY 
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH JUST EAST OF YAP AND PALAU WILL KEEP 
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM 
LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY AT YAP AND PALAU UNTIL ADDITIONAL SHOWERS 
ARRIVE WITH THE TROUGH NOW EAST OF CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

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