From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Nov 7 13:43:02 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA75h1xV017086 for ; Sun, 7 Nov 2010 13:43:02 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA63wV4a028721; Sun, 7 Nov 2010 00:42:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4247524 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 7 Nov 2010 00:42:48 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA75gmHQ002413 for ; Sun, 7 Nov 2010 00:42:48 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA75gfqL006984 for ; Sun, 7 Nov 2010 00:42:48 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9B0E4405001E; Sun, 7 Nov 2010 00:42:41 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101107054241.9B0E4405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 7 Nov 2010 00:42:41 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 046 FXPQ60 PGUM 070542 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 342 PM CHST SUN NOV 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ESE OF THE MARIANAS...FROM ABOUT 10N145E TO 13N150E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT OUT BETWEEN 148E AND 151E...WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN THAT AND GUAM. EAST OF 151E...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND. && .DISCUSSION... THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS ARE NOT VERY DEFINITE ON BRINGING SHOWERS THRU OVERNIGHT...BUT THE GFS DOES BRING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME RAINFALL IN MAINLY AFTER 12Z. IN ANY CASE THE TROUGH IS QUITE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND APPEARS READY TO BRING ANOTHER LOW-END SCATTERED-SHOWERS EPISODE TO THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...AT A 30 PCT POP LEVEL. LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL MAKE MONDAY PARTLY SUNNY...BUT AFTER THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS SHOULD DRY QUITE A BIT. THUS...ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS FROM EAST OF POHNPEI TO BEYOND THE DATELINE HAS KEPT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS PUSHING WESTWARD WITH ARRIVAL AT KOSRAE THIS EVENING AND POHNPEI LATE TONIGHT. MODELS MOVE THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF MAJURO BY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE KEEPING KOSRAE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CONVECTION. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL SUBSIDE NEAR KOSRAE EARLIER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STRONGER IN KEEPING SHOWERS AT POHNPEI THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST HAVE LEFT WEAK RIDGING AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AT CHUUK. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI APPROACHES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF...MODELS BRING SHOWERS TO AN END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH JUST EAST OF YAP AND PALAU WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY AT YAP AND PALAU UNTIL ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE WITH THE TROUGH NOW EAST OF CHUUK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.