From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Nov 8 05:38:35 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA7LcY44022675 for ; Mon, 8 Nov 2010 05:38:35 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA7DHd3J028721; Sun, 7 Nov 2010 15:38:16 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4255659 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 7 Nov 2010 15:38:16 -0600 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA7LcFqH001213 for ; Sun, 7 Nov 2010 15:38:15 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA7Lc8sV006869 for ; Sun, 7 Nov 2010 15:38:15 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DC24F405001E; Sun, 7 Nov 2010 15:38:07 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101107213807.DC24F405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 7 Nov 2010 15:38:07 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 479 FXPQ60 PGUM 072137 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 737 AM CHST MON NOV 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS EVEN FEWER SHOWERS AND CLEARER SKIES MOVING IN. && .DISCUSSION... TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW HAVE BEEN SHAKING A FEW SHOWERS LOOSE. GFS40 SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCES SHOULD NOW START PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM. THEREFORE THE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKED REALLY GOOD. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AS THE SWELLS ALSO LOOKED FINE ACCORDING TO THE BUOY. TRADE-WIND SWELLS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION TODAY FROM NEAR KOSRAE TO AS FAR WEST AS CHUUK. KOSRAE IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS POHNPEI POSSIBLY AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY. A LESS-IMPRESSIVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. A STRATIFIED REMNANT OF WHAT ONCE WAS...THIS AREA NOW CONSISTS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF MAJURO AND NEAR KWAJALEIN. NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR LATER TODAY AFTER SUNRISE. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MODELS HOLD CONVECTION IN A TIGHT BELT BETWEEN 7N AND 9N WITH MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THIS REGION. GFS 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS BETWEEN 1.5 INCHES TO 3.5 INCHES BETWEEN 7N AND 9N WITH TOTALS GENERALLY FALLING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...INCLUDING KOSRAE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... FORECAST ORIGINALLY HELD STEADY FOR CHUUK TODAY BUT WEATHER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI HAS DETERIORATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD TILL TONIGHT AS THE MASS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES CLOSER TO CHUUK. KOROR CONTINUES TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. SMALL CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR YAP HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND EXTEND EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. YAP SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY TOMORROW BUT WEATHER NEAR CHUUK WILL GRADUALLY WORK WESTWARD ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY TO YAP AND KOROR. FOR NOW...MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES MUCH OF THE ACTION JUST NORTH OF KOROR. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.