Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Nov 2010 15:38:07 -0600

479 
FXPQ60 PGUM 072137
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
737 AM CHST MON NOV 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS EVEN FEWER SHOWERS AND CLEARER SKIES
MOVING IN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW HAVE BEEN SHAKING A FEW
SHOWERS LOOSE. GFS40 SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCES SHOULD NOW START
PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM. THEREFORE THE PARTLY CLOUDY AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKED REALLY GOOD. DID NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AS THE SWELLS ALSO LOOKED FINE ACCORDING TO THE
BUOY. TRADE-WIND SWELLS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
REGION TODAY FROM NEAR KOSRAE TO AS FAR WEST AS CHUUK. KOSRAE IS 
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL 
LINGER ACROSS POHNPEI POSSIBLY AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY. A 
LESS-IMPRESSIVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. A 
STRATIFIED REMNANT OF WHAT ONCE WAS...THIS AREA NOW CONSISTS OF 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF MAJURO AND NEAR 
KWAJALEIN. NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR LATER TODAY AFTER 
SUNRISE. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MODELS HOLD CONVECTION IN A 
TIGHT BELT BETWEEN 7N AND 9N WITH MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THIS 
REGION. GFS 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS BETWEEN 1.5 INCHES TO 3.5 
INCHES BETWEEN 7N AND 9N WITH TOTALS GENERALLY FALLING RAPIDLY TO 
THE NORTH AND SOUTH...INCLUDING KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
FORECAST ORIGINALLY HELD STEADY FOR CHUUK TODAY BUT WEATHER AHEAD OF 
THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI HAS DETERIORATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY 
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD TILL TONIGHT AS 
THE MASS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES CLOSER TO CHUUK. KOROR 
CONTINUES TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES 
EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. SMALL CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR YAP HAVE DEVELOPED 
IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND EXTEND EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES 
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. YAP SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY TOMORROW BUT WEATHER 
NEAR CHUUK WILL GRADUALLY WORK WESTWARD ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY TO YAP 
AND KOROR. FOR NOW...MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES MUCH OF THE ACTION JUST 
NORTH OF KOROR. 

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

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