Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Nov 2010 23:44:52 -0600

157 
FXPQ60 PGUM 080544
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
344 PM CHST MON NOV 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE MARIANAS OVERNIGHT
HAS MOVED WEST OF THE ISLANDS...AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SHOWN
ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH...MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO SOUTH OF GUAM.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ARE BEGINNING TO DRY OUT AS A TROUGH PULLS OUT TO 
THE WEST. HOWEVER...A BAND OF CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FORM EAST OF 
POHNPEI AND ACROSS THE MARSHALLS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO 
POHNPEI TUESDAY. MODELS KEEP KOSRAE DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ALL 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. THE NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION MAY 
PERIODICALLY BRING HEAVY SHOWERS TO MAJURO OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWER 
COVERAGE INCREASING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER TROUGH OVER 
THE DATELINE PASSES OVER THE MARSHALLS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE TROUGH NEAR YAP AND 
PALAU BUT IS NOT WIDESPREAD SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT 
THE TWO LOCATIONS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES WESTWARD. WINDS HAVE WEAKENED
AS WELL WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS. STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
RESUME IN THE REGION BY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH NEAR
CHUUK APPROACHES...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IT. FOR
CHUUK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRIER
TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

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