Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 2010 15:49:38 -0600

870 
FXPQ60 PGUM 082149
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
749 AM CHST TUE NOV 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FOR QUITE A WAYS
UPSTREAM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AROUND MID WEEK. GFS40 GRIDS SUGGEST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WENT WITH THE DAY
SHIFT GRIDS WHICH TOOK THE WINDS DOWN A FEW KNOTS. THIS WILL BE
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INHERITED GRIDS WERE
QUITE REASONABLE SO MADE NO CHANGES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM NEAR POHNPEI TO 
MAJURO THIS MORNING. POHNPEI SITS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE ACTION 
THEREFORE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED FROM TODAY. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT COULD BE INCREASED TO SCATTERED 
DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THAT EXTEND SOUTHWARD 
TOWARDS KOSRAE. CLOUDS WERE INCREASED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS 
MORNING AT KOSRAE FOR THAT SAME LINE OF SHOWERS. RAIN AND SHOWERS 
HAVE PERSISTED OVER MAJURO MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY 
STRATIFY OUT. GFS GREATLY DECREASES SHOWER COVERAGE AFTER THE NEXT 
36 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE WEEKEND...ALL MODELS SHOW A 
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PERSISTENT BELT OF SHOWERS THAT HAS 
BROUGHT WEATHER TO MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN OVER THE LAST WEEK. DRIER 
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND 
POHNPEI SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONDITIONS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT AT CHUUK WITH SHOWERS ENDING. SHOWERS 
WERE DECREASED TO ISOLATED FOR TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 
SCATTERED TONIGHT AS WEATHER NEAR POHNPEI MOVES WEST. A TROUGH WEST 
OF CHUUK IS PUSHING TOWARDS YAP AND KOROR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE 
EXPECTED AT KOROR TODAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT AT YAP. MODEL 
GUIDANCE PASSES MOST SHOWERS SOUTH OF YAP AND TOWARDS KOROR BY 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE PROGGED TO FILTER BACK ACROSS 
THE REGION BY TONIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

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