From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Nov 9 05:50:25 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA8LoOeQ003659 for ; Tue, 9 Nov 2010 05:50:25 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA8Jg7e8028721; Mon, 8 Nov 2010 15:49:44 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4273233 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 8 Nov 2010 15:49:44 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA8LnipU001776 for ; Mon, 8 Nov 2010 15:49:44 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA8LncWn019508 for ; Mon, 8 Nov 2010 15:49:44 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 1468E405001E; Mon, 8 Nov 2010 15:49:38 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101108214938.1468E405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 8 Nov 2010 15:49:38 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 870 FXPQ60 PGUM 082149 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 749 AM CHST TUE NOV 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FOR QUITE A WAYS UPSTREAM. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AROUND MID WEEK. GFS40 GRIDS SUGGEST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WENT WITH THE DAY SHIFT GRIDS WHICH TOOK THE WINDS DOWN A FEW KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INHERITED GRIDS WERE QUITE REASONABLE SO MADE NO CHANGES. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM NEAR POHNPEI TO MAJURO THIS MORNING. POHNPEI SITS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE ACTION THEREFORE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED FROM TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT COULD BE INCREASED TO SCATTERED DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THAT EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS KOSRAE. CLOUDS WERE INCREASED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS MORNING AT KOSRAE FOR THAT SAME LINE OF SHOWERS. RAIN AND SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OVER MAJURO MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY STRATIFY OUT. GFS GREATLY DECREASES SHOWER COVERAGE AFTER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE WEEKEND...ALL MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PERSISTENT BELT OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BROUGHT WEATHER TO MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN OVER THE LAST WEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND POHNPEI SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONDITIONS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT AT CHUUK WITH SHOWERS ENDING. SHOWERS WERE DECREASED TO ISOLATED FOR TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE TO SCATTERED TONIGHT AS WEATHER NEAR POHNPEI MOVES WEST. A TROUGH WEST OF CHUUK IS PUSHING TOWARDS YAP AND KOROR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT KOROR TODAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT AT YAP. MODEL GUIDANCE PASSES MOST SHOWERS SOUTH OF YAP AND TOWARDS KOROR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE PROGGED TO FILTER BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY TONIGHT. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.