From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Nov 9 13:25:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA95PQGK002979 for ; Tue, 9 Nov 2010 13:25:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA8Jg77u028721; Mon, 8 Nov 2010 23:24:48 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4278067 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 8 Nov 2010 23:24:47 -0600 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA95OltJ002085 for ; Mon, 8 Nov 2010 23:24:47 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA95OfSA022628 for ; Mon, 8 Nov 2010 23:24:47 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0BED1405001E; Mon, 8 Nov 2010 23:24:41 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101109052441.0BED1405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 8 Nov 2010 23:24:41 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 409 FXPQ60 PGUM 090524 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 324 PM CHST TUE NOV 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS... ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER MAKER SHOWN ON SATELLITE IS THE BELT OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE INCREASING TRADES BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 20+ MPH WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A SIGN OF APPROACHING DRY SEASON. && .MARINE... INCREASING TRADE WINDS AND TRADE WIND SWELL WILL BRING A SHARP RISE IN SEAS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... THE ITCZ AND A PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 6N AND 12N FROM CHUUK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE. ASCAT WINDS SHOW A TROUGH BETWEEN KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...AND ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH JUST EAST OF MAJURO. THESE TROUGHS WERE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NW OF KOSRAE WILL MOVE TOWARD POHNPEI AND CHUUK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS INDICATE THE ITCZ WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS 4-5 FT WAVES AT 9-10 SEC PERIOD JUST OFF THEIR EAST COAST...BUT COMBINED SEAS ARE PROBABLY 1-2 FEET HIGHER FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE ZONE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... WEATHER AT YAP AND KOROR WILL BE SHOWERY AT TIMES NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ASCAT WINDS SHOW A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH WEST OF CHUUK AND SATELLITE SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN PALAU...YAP AND CHUUK. MODELS ARE A BIT ERRATIC BUT INDICATE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD. SLIGHTLY DRIER TRADE-WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED BY ABOUT THURSDAY. FOR CHUUK...SAT SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THEM THIS AFTN FROM THE EAST AND MODELS INDICATE A MOIST FLOW THRU WEDNESDAY WHILE THE TROUGH NOW OVER POHNPEI MOVES WESTWARD. MARGINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK AS THE ITCZ SLIGHTLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.