Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 2010 23:24:41 -0600

409 
FXPQ60 PGUM 090524
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
324 PM CHST TUE NOV 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE
ONLY REAL WEATHER MAKER SHOWN ON SATELLITE IS THE BELT OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE INCREASING
TRADES BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 20+ MPH WINDS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A SIGN OF APPROACHING DRY SEASON.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING TRADE WINDS AND TRADE WIND SWELL WILL BRING A SHARP RISE
IN SEAS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO
10 FEET POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE ITCZ AND A PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS 
THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN
6N AND 12N FROM CHUUK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE. ASCAT WINDS
SHOW A TROUGH BETWEEN KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...AND ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH
JUST EAST OF MAJURO. THESE TROUGHS WERE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NW OF KOSRAE WILL MOVE TOWARD POHNPEI
AND CHUUK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS
INDICATE THE ITCZ WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK.

MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS 4-5 FT WAVES AT 9-10 SEC PERIOD JUST OFF 
THEIR EAST COAST...BUT COMBINED SEAS ARE PROBABLY 1-2 FEET HIGHER 
FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE ZONE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WEATHER AT YAP AND KOROR WILL BE SHOWERY AT TIMES NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 
ASCAT WINDS SHOW A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH WEST OF CHUUK AND SATELLITE 
SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 
PALAU...YAP AND CHUUK. MODELS ARE A BIT ERRATIC BUT INDICATE WEATHER 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARP TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD. SLIGHTLY DRIER 
TRADE-WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED BY ABOUT THURSDAY. FOR CHUUK...SAT SHOWS 
ANOTHER BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THEM THIS
AFTN FROM THE EAST AND MODELS INDICATE A MOIST FLOW THRU WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE TROUGH NOW OVER POHNPEI MOVES WESTWARD. MARGINALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK AS THE ITCZ SLIGHTLY WEAKENS
AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON

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