Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 9 Nov 2010 14:58:07 -0600

073 
FXPQ60 PGUM 092057
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
657 AM CHST WED NOV 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF GUAM. OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE ALL INDICATE SHOWERS
PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS THE MARIANAS.
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF GUAM THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN THE SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS AREA WAS SMALL
SO DID NOT INCREASE THE SHOWERS OR CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE TRADE-WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MOST LIKELY FIRST TRADE-WIND SURGE OF THE SEASON
WILL

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT AN EAST SWELL OF FIVE FEET TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE MOST LIKELY FIRST TRADE- WIND
SURGE OF THE SEASON WILL INCREASE SEAS AND SWELL OVER THE
MARIANAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF MODELS INDICATE THAT
SURF MAY REACH 11 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO HIGH SURF AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED IF THE EXPECTED
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOW. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THAT WINDS
AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
UNLIKE THE LAST 36 TO 48 HOURS...THERE IS NOTICEABLY LESS SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH NEAR KOSRAE AND NORTH
OF MAJURO WILL KEEP CLOUDY CONDITIONS PRESENT TODAY AS WELL AS
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
NEAR KOSRAE AND KWAJALEIN...BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HELD STEADY THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH
A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NOW-DISORGANIZED BELT OF
SHOWERS. DESPITE THE SOUTHWARD TREND...GFS 5-DAY TOTAL RAIN
ESTIMATES ARE STILL LOW ALONG THE EQUATOR FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT CHUUK AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST ALONG WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING YAP.
SHOWER AND CLOUD COVERAGE WERE BOTH REDUCED FOR TODAY. CLOUDS
COULD AGAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FROM NEAR POHNPEI...BUT
MAY REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. MUCH OF THE ACTION HAS SHIFTED WEST OF
150E...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO KOROR AND
YAP. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPREAD
ACROSS KOROR BEFORE SUNRISE. LESS-IMPRESSIVE CONDITIONS ARE SEEN
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING YAP. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO THURSDAY FOR KOROR...BUT SHOULD TAPER A BIT IN YAP BY
TONIGHT. WAVEWATCH MODEL INDICATES AN INCREASING TRADE-WIND SWELL
FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD IN AS SOON AS SATURDAY FOR CHUUK
AND YAP. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT
THIS WILL BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

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