From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Nov 10 04:58:54 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA9Kwruu032111 for ; Wed, 10 Nov 2010 04:58:53 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA961CFc006461; Tue, 9 Nov 2010 14:58:14 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4291426 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 9 Nov 2010 14:58:14 -0600 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA9KwE1u024847 for ; Tue, 9 Nov 2010 14:58:14 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA9Kw7U6011586 for ; Tue, 9 Nov 2010 14:58:13 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 70975405001E; Tue, 9 Nov 2010 14:58:07 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101109205807.70975405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 9 Nov 2010 14:58:07 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 073 FXPQ60 PGUM 092057 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 657 AM CHST WED NOV 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM. OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE ALL INDICATE SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS THE MARIANAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN THE SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS AREA WAS SMALL SO DID NOT INCREASE THE SHOWERS OR CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. MODELS KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE TRADE-WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MOST LIKELY FIRST TRADE-WIND SURGE OF THE SEASON WILL && .MARINE... EXPECT AN EAST SWELL OF FIVE FEET TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE MOST LIKELY FIRST TRADE- WIND SURGE OF THE SEASON WILL INCREASE SEAS AND SWELL OVER THE MARIANAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF MODELS INDICATE THAT SURF MAY REACH 11 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO HIGH SURF AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED IF THE EXPECTED FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOW. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THAT WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... UNLIKE THE LAST 36 TO 48 HOURS...THERE IS NOTICEABLY LESS SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH NEAR KOSRAE AND NORTH OF MAJURO WILL KEEP CLOUDY CONDITIONS PRESENT TODAY AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR KOSRAE AND KWAJALEIN...BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HELD STEADY THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NOW-DISORGANIZED BELT OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE SOUTHWARD TREND...GFS 5-DAY TOTAL RAIN ESTIMATES ARE STILL LOW ALONG THE EQUATOR FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT CHUUK AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ALONG WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING YAP. SHOWER AND CLOUD COVERAGE WERE BOTH REDUCED FOR TODAY. CLOUDS COULD AGAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FROM NEAR POHNPEI...BUT MAY REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. MUCH OF THE ACTION HAS SHIFTED WEST OF 150E...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO KOROR AND YAP. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPREAD ACROSS KOROR BEFORE SUNRISE. LESS-IMPRESSIVE CONDITIONS ARE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING YAP. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY FOR KOROR...BUT SHOULD TAPER A BIT IN YAP BY TONIGHT. WAVEWATCH MODEL INDICATES AN INCREASING TRADE-WIND SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD IN AS SOON AS SATURDAY FOR CHUUK AND YAP. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.