From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Nov 10 13:00:42 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAA50fk2004755 for ; Wed, 10 Nov 2010 13:00:42 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA9KMKl3006383; Tue, 9 Nov 2010 23:00:15 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4297411 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 9 Nov 2010 23:00:15 -0600 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAA50FWT001572 for ; Tue, 9 Nov 2010 23:00:15 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAA508DU023209 for ; Tue, 9 Nov 2010 23:00:15 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id A9DDF405001E; Tue, 9 Nov 2010 23:00:08 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101110050008.A9DDF405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 9 Nov 2010 23:00:08 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 281 FXPQ60 PGUM 100500 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 PM CHST WED NOV 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS AND UPSTREAM TO THE EAST. && .DISCUSSION... NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A TRADE SURGE THROUGH THE MARIANAS LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. && .MARINE/SURF... TRADE WIND SURGE SHOULD PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH SEAS AND WINDS. HIGH SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LESS THAN LIKELY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. ASCAT ALSO SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING JUST EAST OF THE DATE LINE. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS EXCEPT GFS STILL INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE EQUATOR NEXT WEEK. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS COMBINED SEAS 4FT/9SEC. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA IS MOVING WESTWARD. GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR YAP AND PALAU...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD REDEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHUUK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WW3 WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATES LARGER NE SWELL WILL ARRIVE MAINLY AT CHUUK THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR LATER FORECAST. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.