Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 9 Nov 2010 23:00:08 -0600

281 
FXPQ60 PGUM 100500
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST WED NOV 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS AND UPSTREAM TO THE EAST. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING A TRADE SURGE THROUGH THE MARIANAS LATE FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
TRADE WIND SURGE SHOULD PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH SEAS AND WINDS. HIGH SURF ON EAST
FACING REEFS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS
LESS THAN LIKELY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS 
THIS AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. ASCAT ALSO SHOWS A 
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING JUST EAST OF THE DATE LINE. MODELS DO NOT 
INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS EXCEPT GFS STILL INDICATES A 
FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE EQUATOR NEXT WEEK. 
MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS COMBINED SEAS 4FT/9SEC.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA 
IS MOVING WESTWARD. GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR YAP 
AND PALAU...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE PATTERN OF 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD REDEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED FOR CHUUK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WW3 WAVE WATCH MODEL 
INDICATES LARGER NE SWELL WILL ARRIVE MAINLY AT CHUUK THIS WEEKEND. 
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT THIS WILL BE 
MONITORED FOR LATER FORECAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON

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