Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2010 15:18:51 -0600

131 
FXPQ60 PGUM 102118
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
718 AM CHST THU NOV 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF OF
ASIA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR OKINAWA THIS MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ALL AGREE ON
INCREASING TRADE-WINDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK AT BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CURRENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY SHALLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.MARINE...
THE FIRST BIG TRADE-WIND SURGE OF THE SEASON WILL INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS
TO BUILD FROM 5 TO 6 FEET TODAY TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND UP TO 9
FEET SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS IT IS VERY POSSIBLE
THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND. SURF ON
EAST FACING REEFS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME 9 TO
11 FEET THIS WEEKEND. THIS IN VERY CLOSE TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BRIEFLY BE
NEEDED SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND FOR EAST FACING REEFS. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN A BRIEF BOUT OF HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE THE MAX SURF AT 11 FEET BUT THINGS MAY CHANGE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MODELS 
INDICATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. A TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF 
KWAJALEIN WILL PASS OVER KOSRAE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH A FEW MORE 
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE NORTHERN 
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING MORE CLOUDS 
TO POHNPEI TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION WEST OF CHUUK AND SOUTH OF 
GUAM. ASCAT SHOWS A TROUGH OVER YAP WITH LIGHT WINDS TO THE SOUTH 
AND SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS 
WILL BE NEAR KOROR TODAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A BROKEN 
LINE OF SHOWERS TRY TO FORM EAST OF KOROR. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL 
START THE DAY AT YAP BEFORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT. WW3 
WAVE WATCH MODEL IS STEADY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST SWELL THIS 
WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECASTS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

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