From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Nov 11 05:19:18 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAALJHG8003903 for ; Thu, 11 Nov 2010 05:19:17 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA961CnS006461; Wed, 10 Nov 2010 15:18:58 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4308642 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 10 Nov 2010 15:18:58 -0600 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAALIvHn029646 for ; Wed, 10 Nov 2010 15:18:57 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAALIpa5007886 for ; Wed, 10 Nov 2010 15:18:57 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 3D059405001E; Wed, 10 Nov 2010 15:18:51 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101110211851.3D059405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2010 15:18:51 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 131 FXPQ60 PGUM 102118 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 718 AM CHST THU NOV 11 2010 .SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF OF ASIA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR OKINAWA THIS MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ALL AGREE ON INCREASING TRADE-WINDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... THE FIRST BIG TRADE-WIND SURGE OF THE SEASON WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD FROM 5 TO 6 FEET TODAY TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND UP TO 9 FEET SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND. SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME 9 TO 11 FEET THIS WEEKEND. THIS IN VERY CLOSE TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BRIEFLY BE NEEDED SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND FOR EAST FACING REEFS. THIS WOULD ALSO MEAN A BRIEF BOUT OF HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE MAX SURF AT 11 FEET BUT THINGS MAY CHANGE. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. A TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN WILL PASS OVER KOSRAE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING MORE CLOUDS TO POHNPEI TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION WEST OF CHUUK AND SOUTH OF GUAM. ASCAT SHOWS A TROUGH OVER YAP WITH LIGHT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KOROR TODAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TRY TO FORM EAST OF KOROR. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL START THE DAY AT YAP BEFORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT. WW3 WAVE WATCH MODEL IS STEADY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECASTS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.