From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Nov 11 16:00:15 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAB80Dgo009156 for ; Thu, 11 Nov 2010 16:00:15 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAB60Mxg006461; Thu, 11 Nov 2010 01:59:52 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4314307 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 11 Nov 2010 01:59:52 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAB7xqXm018102 for ; Thu, 11 Nov 2010 01:59:52 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAB7xjOx022329 for ; Thu, 11 Nov 2010 01:59:51 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9926E405001E; Thu, 11 Nov 2010 01:59:45 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101111075945.9926E405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 11 Nov 2010 01:59:45 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 612 FXPQ60 PGUM 110759 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 559 PM CHST THU NOV 11 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SATTELITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. && .DISCUSSION... SHEAR LINE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PROMOTING SOME DRIER WEATHER FOR THE MARIANAS. SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THIS TREND IS GOING TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REFRESHED THE WIND AND WAVE GRIDS THEN RECALCULATED THE SURF. WENT WITH FIGURES JUST A BIT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE...TAKING US RIGHT TO THE RAGGED EDGE OF SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WITHOUT GOING OVER IT. THIS EVENT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. CHANGES ARE VERY SLIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... QUIET CONDITIONS EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. A TROUGH EAST OF KOSRAE WILL PASS OVER KOSRAE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING CLOUDS TO POHNPEI TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONDITIONS AT YAP AND KOROR ARE BORDERLINE BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NEARBY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KOROR THIS EVENING. SINCE SCATTERED SHOWERS DID NOT OCCUR AT THE FORECAST LOCATIONS TODAY...OPTED TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE GFS AND UKMET LOOK BORDERLINE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE TWO LOCATIONS. CHUUK LOOKS DRY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WW3 WAVE WATCH MODEL IS STEADY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECASTS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.