Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 2010 01:59:45 -0600

612 
FXPQ60 PGUM 110759
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
559 PM CHST THU NOV 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATTELITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEAR LINE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PROMOTING SOME DRIER WEATHER FOR
THE MARIANAS. SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW THIS TREND IS GOING TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REFRESHED THE WIND
AND WAVE GRIDS THEN RECALCULATED THE SURF. WENT WITH FIGURES JUST
A BIT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE...TAKING US RIGHT TO THE RAGGED EDGE OF
SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WITHOUT GOING OVER IT. THIS
EVENT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. CHANGES ARE VERY
SLIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
QUIET CONDITIONS EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. MODELS 
INDICATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH 
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. A TROUGH EAST OF 
KOSRAE WILL PASS OVER KOSRAE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING CLOUDS TO POHNPEI TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONDITIONS AT YAP AND KOROR ARE BORDERLINE BETWEEN ISOLATED AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NEARBY TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
KOROR THIS EVENING. SINCE SCATTERED SHOWERS DID NOT OCCUR AT THE 
FORECAST LOCATIONS TODAY...OPTED TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND UKMET LOOK BORDERLINE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE TWO LOCATIONS. CHUUK LOOKS DRY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WW3 WAVE WATCH MODEL IS STEADY WITH INCREASING
NORTHEAST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECASTS REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/DEVITA

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