From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Nov 13 04:02:22 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oACK2Laf005761 for ; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 04:02:22 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oACG5clp006383; Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:02:09 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4339172 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:02:09 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oACK29PG011661 for ; Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:02:09 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oACK23On011030 for ; Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:02:09 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id E5E83405001E; Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:02:02 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101112200202.E5E83405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:02:02 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 837 FXPQ60 PGUM 122001 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 601 AM CHST SAT NOV 13 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE MARIANAS IS CHANNELING DRIER FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS OUR AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING SOUTH OF GUAM KEEPS A REMOTE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... FAIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DRY TRADES CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. TOWARD MIDWEEK...MOST MODELS ARE HINTING A POSSIBLE INTERACTION BETWEEN A TRADE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE DATE LINE AND THE REMNANTS OF A SHEAR LINE OVER THE MARIANAS. STILL TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE SHOWERS AT THIS POINT BUT DID BRING IN MORE CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TRADE SURGE BY SUNDAY EVENING...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FOR NEXT WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SAT SHOWS CLOUDINESS HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN 6N AND THE EQUATOR AND KAPINGAMARANGI COULD RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL TODAY. A SMALL AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF MAJURO MARINE ZONE IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA. ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH BETWEEN 155E AND 160E WITH 10 TO 20 KT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA TO THE NORTH OF 5N. GFS INITIALIZES DECENTLY AND INDICATES SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MORE ALONG 5N TO 7N IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE FORECAST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LOW BUT GENERALLY LOOKS OKAY. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS COMBINED SEAS 5 FT/10 SEC...AND THAT MIGHT BE A LITTLE LOW FOR THEIR MARINE ZONE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... UPPER LOW NEAR 14N135E HAS TRIGGERED ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR BOTH YAP AND KOROR OVERNIGHT...AND LOCALLY DEEP CONVECTION COULD LINGER TODAY. TRADE-WIND SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CHUUK AREA ALSO. ASCAT WINDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SHOWN THAT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS HAVE SPREAD INTO WESTERN MICRONESIA WITH A MORE DRY-SEASON LIKE PATTERN. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER WAVES. MODELS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 5N AND 7N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP AT TIMES...BUT MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR PMZ151>154. && $$ CHAN/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.