Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:02:02 -0600

837 
FXPQ60 PGUM 122001
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
601 AM CHST SAT NOV 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE MARIANAS IS CHANNELING DRIER
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS OUR AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXITING SOUTH OF GUAM KEEPS A REMOTE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS DRY TRADES CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. TOWARD
MIDWEEK...MOST MODELS ARE HINTING A POSSIBLE INTERACTION BETWEEN
A TRADE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE DATE LINE AND THE REMNANTS
OF A SHEAR LINE OVER THE MARIANAS. STILL TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT BUT DID BRING IN MORE CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IN
THE SHORT TERM. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TRADE SURGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SAT SHOWS CLOUDINESS HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN 6N AND THE EQUATOR AND
KAPINGAMARANGI COULD RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL TODAY. A SMALL AREA OF
HEAVY SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF MAJURO MARINE ZONE IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA.
ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH BETWEEN 155E AND 160E WITH 10
TO 20 KT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA TO THE NORTH OF 5N. GFS
INITIALIZES DECENTLY AND INDICATES SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MORE
ALONG 5N TO 7N IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE FORECAST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LONGER
TERM.

WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LOW BUT GENERALLY LOOKS
OKAY. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS COMBINED SEAS 5 FT/10 SEC...AND THAT
MIGHT BE A LITTLE LOW FOR THEIR MARINE ZONE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
UPPER LOW NEAR 14N135E HAS TRIGGERED ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR BOTH YAP
AND KOROR OVERNIGHT...AND LOCALLY DEEP CONVECTION COULD LINGER
TODAY. TRADE-WIND SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
CHUUK AREA ALSO. ASCAT WINDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SHOWN THAT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS HAVE SPREAD INTO WESTERN MICRONESIA
WITH A MORE DRY-SEASON LIKE PATTERN. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO THE
ARRIVAL OF LARGER WAVES. MODELS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 5N AND 7N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MIGHT
DEVELOP AT TIMES...BUT MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MAINLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

CHAN/SIMPSON

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