From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Nov 13 04:51:40 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oACKpdnp009997 for ; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 04:51:39 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oACG5cq4006383; Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:51:14 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4339826 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:51:14 -0600 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oACKpEFi015974 for ; Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:51:14 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oACKp79C012519 for ; Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:51:13 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 7E534405001E; Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:51:07 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101112205107.7E534405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:51:07 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Rmks/ To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112021Z NOV 10// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 111.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 111.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 13.3N 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 13.9N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 111.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 121730Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBER VALUES OF 1.5 FROM KNES AND PGTW AS WELL AS A 121416Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. TD 18W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR WBAR, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DEPICTS RECURVATURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. TD 18W LIES NORTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 112021Z NOV 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 112030). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.