Subject: Pacific-NW: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:51:07 -0600

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112021Z NOV 10//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 111.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 111.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 13.3N 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 13.9N 109.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 111.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305
NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 121730Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED
ON DVORAK T-NUMBER VALUES OF 1.5 FROM KNES AND PGTW AS WELL AS A
121416Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS NEAR THE
CYCLONE CENTER. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT
CONVECTION OVER AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. TD
18W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR WBAR, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DEPICTS
RECURVATURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. TD 18W LIES
NORTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INLAND
AND DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 112021Z NOV
10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 112030). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//

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