Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 18w (eighteen) Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2010 02:28:05 -0600

WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 111.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 111.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 14.3N 110.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 14.7N 108.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 110.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265NM SOUTHEAST
OF HUE CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 130228Z TRMM
37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC. A
130248Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 20-25 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT ALTHOUGH A WELL-DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS TO
THE NORTHEAST, OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND IS CONFIRMED BY THE
RECENT ASCAT DATA. TD 18W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, ALTHOUGH
LIMITED, SUPPORT THIS FORECAST TRACK AND INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL
MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//

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