Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2010 02:42:15 -0600

316 
WWPS21 NFFN 130600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 13/0842 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 175.0E AT 130600 UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, BUT HAS NOT
INCREASED MUCH ELSEWHERE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS FROM SURFACE TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF A 250 HPA SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING IT IN
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
 
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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