Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2010 03:29:08 -0600

123 
FXPQ60 PGUM 130929
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
729 PM CHST SAT NOV 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
IR SATELLITE SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WATERS...WITH MORE OF THE SAME TO COME THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A 190 KNOT JET STREAK EAST OF JAPAN SHOWS THAT WINTER HAS
ARRIVED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT GRIDS HANDLED THIS WELL SO JUST UPDATED
THE SEAS AND SWELL WHICH BROUGHT THEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE IPAN
BUOY. COMBINED SEAS ARE STILL JUST SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS AT THIS
TIME. THE NEW WRINKLE IS THAT ON DAY 10 THE GFS40 BRINGS THE NEXT
SHEAR LINE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST ZONES. THIS WOULD BE
UNSEASONABLY EARLY FOR A WINTER TIME PHENOMENON LIKE THAT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK ABOVE SHOWS THAT THIS IS AT LEAST A
POSSIBILITY ACCORDINGLY...THIS FORECAST SCENARIO CANNOT
IMMEDIATELY BE DISCOUNTED. NEVER THE LESS...DID NOT ELECT TO PUT
THE SHEAR LINE INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE NEXT
LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM ASIA RIGHT NOW IS DEEP AND
REACHES DOWN TO ABOUT 15N.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 1N AND 6N
FROM 158E TO 172E. TONIGHT MAJURO IS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH TO
COVER KOSRAE BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM SINCE THE FORECAST
WAS DISSEMINATED SO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.
POHNPEI IS RELATIVELY CLEAR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN TWO
SURFACE TROUGHS. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SPOTTY ITCZ AROUND 4N TO 6N NE TRADE WINDS CONVERGE WITH ESE
WINDS APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE EQUATOR. THE SPOTTY CONVERGENCE
IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THESE FORECAST LOCATIONS.

WAVE WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LOW BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS OKAY. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS COMBINED SEAS AT 4 TO 5 FT AT
10 SECONDS. PRIMARY SWELL ARE ARRIVING FROM THE NNE. ENERGY AT
THE KALO BUOY COULD BE LOW DUE TO BLOCKAGE OF EAST WAVES AND
SWELL BY ARNO.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
FORECAST FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA CLOSELY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE.
RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND REGIME IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
CHUUK THROUGH DAY FIVE. TUTT AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION IS SHIFTING
WESTWARD AWAY FROM YAP...AND IS APPROACHING KOROR. TWEAKED KOROR
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PERIOD USING THE AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED
TOOL...WHICH SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OVER KOROR DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DEPART AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...A DRIER
TRADE-WIND REGIME SHOULD SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN MICRONESIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

STANKO/DEVITA

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