From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Nov 13 17:29:31 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAD9TUIH028578 for ; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 17:29:31 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAD35YPb006383; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 03:29:15 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4345824 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 03:29:15 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAD9TFFH001005 for ; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 03:29:15 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAD9T8pR003801 for ; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 03:29:15 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id C708E405001E; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 03:29:08 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101113092908.C708E405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2010 03:29:08 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 123 FXPQ60 PGUM 130929 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 729 PM CHST SAT NOV 13 2010 .SYNOPSIS... IR SATELLITE SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS...WITH MORE OF THE SAME TO COME THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A 190 KNOT JET STREAK EAST OF JAPAN SHOWS THAT WINTER HAS ARRIVED TO THE NORTH. && .DISCUSSION... ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT GRIDS HANDLED THIS WELL SO JUST UPDATED THE SEAS AND SWELL WHICH BROUGHT THEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE IPAN BUOY. COMBINED SEAS ARE STILL JUST SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS AT THIS TIME. THE NEW WRINKLE IS THAT ON DAY 10 THE GFS40 BRINGS THE NEXT SHEAR LINE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST ZONES. THIS WOULD BE UNSEASONABLY EARLY FOR A WINTER TIME PHENOMENON LIKE THAT. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK ABOVE SHOWS THAT THIS IS AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY ACCORDINGLY...THIS FORECAST SCENARIO CANNOT IMMEDIATELY BE DISCOUNTED. NEVER THE LESS...DID NOT ELECT TO PUT THE SHEAR LINE INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM ASIA RIGHT NOW IS DEEP AND REACHES DOWN TO ABOUT 15N. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 1N AND 6N FROM 158E TO 172E. TONIGHT MAJURO IS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH TO COVER KOSRAE BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM SINCE THE FORECAST WAS DISSEMINATED SO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. POHNPEI IS RELATIVELY CLEAR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SPOTTY ITCZ AROUND 4N TO 6N NE TRADE WINDS CONVERGE WITH ESE WINDS APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE EQUATOR. THE SPOTTY CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THESE FORECAST LOCATIONS. WAVE WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LOW BUT GENERALLY LOOKS OKAY. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS COMBINED SEAS AT 4 TO 5 FT AT 10 SECONDS. PRIMARY SWELL ARE ARRIVING FROM THE NNE. ENERGY AT THE KALO BUOY COULD BE LOW DUE TO BLOCKAGE OF EAST WAVES AND SWELL BY ARNO. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... FORECAST FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA CLOSELY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE. RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND REGIME IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER CHUUK THROUGH DAY FIVE. TUTT AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION IS SHIFTING WESTWARD AWAY FROM YAP...AND IS APPROACHING KOROR. TWEAKED KOROR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PERIOD USING THE AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL...WHICH SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OVER KOROR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DEPART AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...A DRIER TRADE-WIND REGIME SHOULD SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN MICRONESIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR PMZ151>154. && $$ STANKO/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.