Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2010 14:22:37 -0600

805 
FXPQ60 PGUM 132022
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
622 AM CHST SUN NOV 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IS
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY.
FARTHER EAST...A DIFFUSE SHEAR LINE EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM NEAR WAKE ISLAND TO JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN CNMI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY N-NE OF THE MARIANAS
DRIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD NEXT WEEK...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COULD ENHANCE AND
EXTEND THE SHEAR LINE WESTWARD OVER THE MARIANAS. THE TIMING OF
THIS EVENT IS STILL A BIT SKETCHY AT THIS POINT. BASED ON THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH...IT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY TRADE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
EVENING. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT WILL DROP FURTHER
TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET NEXT WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA ARE BECOMING LESS
IDENTIFIABLE VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY AS CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE. DEEPER CONVECTION NEAR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI HAS SUBSIDED
WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING DEEP DEVELOPMENT. MODELS
KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT GFS HINTS
AT A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION FORMING BY MIDWEEK SO HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR ALL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ISOLATED SINCE MODEL DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TWO LINES OF SHOWERS HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THE PAST FEW HOURS NEAR YAP AND PALAU. A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROUGH NEAR PALAU WILL PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE NEARER TO YAP...CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A TRADE-WIND SURGE IS PRODUCING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. AFTER THE TRADE-WIND SURGE PASSES TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

CHAN/W. AYDLETT

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