From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Nov 14 04:23:02 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oADKN1Wu002520 for ; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 04:23:01 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAD35YjK006383; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 14:22:44 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4350271 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 14:22:44 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oADKMhLv012198 for ; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 14:22:43 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oADKMbne016232 for ; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 14:22:43 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 5464A4050028; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 14:22:37 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101113202237.5464A4050028@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2010 14:22:37 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 805 FXPQ60 PGUM 132022 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 622 AM CHST SUN NOV 14 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IS MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. FARTHER EAST...A DIFFUSE SHEAR LINE EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR WAKE ISLAND TO JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN CNMI. && .DISCUSSION... AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY N-NE OF THE MARIANAS DRIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD NEXT WEEK...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COULD ENHANCE AND EXTEND THE SHEAR LINE WESTWARD OVER THE MARIANAS. THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS STILL A BIT SKETCHY AT THIS POINT. BASED ON THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH...IT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY TRADE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .MARINE... BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT WILL DROP FURTHER TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET NEXT WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA ARE BECOMING LESS IDENTIFIABLE VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY AS CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEEPER CONVECTION NEAR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI HAS SUBSIDED WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING DEEP DEVELOPMENT. MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT GFS HINTS AT A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION FORMING BY MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR ALL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED SINCE MODEL DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... TWO LINES OF SHOWERS HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THE PAST FEW HOURS NEAR YAP AND PALAU. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROUGH NEAR PALAU WILL PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE NEARER TO YAP...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A TRADE-WIND SURGE IS PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AFTER THE TRADE-WIND SURGE PASSES TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PMZ151>154. && $$ CHAN/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.