From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Nov 14 06:32:48 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oADMWlsb027127 for ; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 06:32:48 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oADBjYZG008396; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 16:32:15 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4350862 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 16:32:15 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oADMWFn0018100 for ; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 16:32:15 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oADMW8ag018990 for ; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 16:32:14 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id A7498405002E; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 16:32:08 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101113223208.A7498405002E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2010 16:32:08 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 18w (eighteen) Warning Nr 005 Corrected To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 132100 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005 CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 109.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 109.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.7N 109.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.9N 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 109.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA_NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED BUT HAS FLARED IN THE LAST TWO HOURS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN AN AREA OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATION. TD 18W HAS MAINTAINED A WEAK INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS, BASED ON THE LATEST PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES. TD 18W IS ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)OF 25-30KTS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CHINA MOVES EASTWARD. THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS ARE EXPECTED TO OFFSET EACH OTHER IN THE SHOT TERM, KEEPING THE SYSTEM AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: LAST LINE REPLACED WITH NEXT WARNING COMMENT.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.