Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 18w (eighteen) Warning Nr 005 Corrected

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2010 16:32:08 -0600

WTPN31 PGTW 132100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005 CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 109.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 109.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 14.7N 109.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 14.9N 108.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 109.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DA_NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION
HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED BUT HAS FLARED IN THE LAST
TWO HOURS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN AN AREA OF STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATION. TD 18W HAS MAINTAINED A WEAK INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE LATEST PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES. TD 18W IS
ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)OF 25-30KTS AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CHINA MOVES EASTWARD. THE COMPETING
INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS ARE
EXPECTED TO OFFSET EACH OTHER IN THE SHOT TERM, KEEPING THE SYSTEM AT
ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE 24
HOUR FORECAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INLAND AND
DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z. JUSTIFICATION
FOR CORRECTION: LAST LINE REPLACED WITH NEXT WARNING COMMENT.//

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