From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Nov 14 09:50:51 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAE1ooYB012072 for ; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 09:50:51 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAD35YrO006383; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 19:50:15 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4351935 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 19:50:15 -0600 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAE1oEWH027555 for ; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 19:50:15 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAE1o8n0017343 for ; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 19:50:14 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 80D59405001E; Sat, 13 Nov 2010 19:50:08 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101114015008.80D59405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2010 19:50:08 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Tropical Depression 18w Warning Nr 06// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SSE OF DA NANG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AND FURTHER DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS SOLID. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION, INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS JUST MADE LANDFALL OVER THE VIETNAM COAST, IS SUPPORTED BY A 132235Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE. TD 18W HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BASED ON 132330Z PGTW DVORAK FIX. TD 18W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING: A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. B. TD 18W AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL BRING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY UNDER SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA. THIS, COUPLED WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN, WILL ENSURE RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 12 HOURS.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.