Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Nov 2010 01:48:13 -0600

684 
FXPQ60 PGUM 140748
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
548 PM CHST SUN NOV 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE MARIANAS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS SUNSET
NEARS. 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK SHEAR LINE IS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO
THE NORTHERN CNMI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ENE TRADE-WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWEST OF A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS. A WEAK SHEAR LINE
CURRENTLY NEARING THE CNMI IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT WIND SPEEDS AND SHOWER
COVERAGE. INCREASED CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE OVER THE MARIANAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS MAY ONCE AGAIN OCCUR
TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THE AREA BUT SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. INTRODUCED NORTH SWELL
COMPONENT FRIDAY AS WAVEWATCH DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT
DRIVEN BY A STRONG MID-LATITUDE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF
JAPAN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS POHNPEI TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
MAJURO WILL MOVE WEST. MODELS SHOW THE MAJURO TROUGH MOVING OVER
POHNPEI WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY GENERATE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT DAY BUT WILL LEAVE SHOWERS ISOLATED FOR NOW. EXPECT
AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

EVEN THOUGH THE FIRST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE HAS
MOVED WEST OF KOSRAE...SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW RESIDUAL
MOISTURE BEHIND IT AND EAST OF KOSRAE. KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT AS A RESULT. THE SAME TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREDICTED
FOR POHNPEI WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS KOSRAE TUESDAY NIGHT.
UKMET INDICATES THIS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT IN MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AT THAT TIME BUT LEFT SHOWERS ISOLATED AS TROUGH
APPEARS WEAK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED WEST OF PALAU THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALAU AND YAP. SATELLITE
INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS PALAU TONIGHT AND
MODELS KEEP IT IN THROUGH MONDAY. WENT WITH THAT THOUGHT AND
ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY.

ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST AND BE NEAR PALAU SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH ACTIVITY WITH THE TROUGH AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY BEGS TO DIFFER. TEMPTED TO ADD
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR PALAU
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. ALSO IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY COULD SLIDE SOUTH OF PALAU
SINCE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
SOUTH OF 6N.

LINGERING ACTIVITY IS JUST WEST OF YAP. FEEL THAT ISOLATED WILL
BE PREVAILING SHOWER COVERAGE TONIGHT AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH
CBS SO CLOSE TO THE YAP AREA FEEL THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT. MODELS TRY TO BRING IN
SHOWERS TUESDAY BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
MAY PASS SOUTH OF YAP.

THE SAME TROUGH PREDICTED ABOVE FOR POHNPEI ON WEDNESDAY IS
PROJECTED TO PASS ACROSS CHUUK THURSDAY. WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

WILLIAMS/ZIOBRO

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