From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Nov 14 15:48:42 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAE7mf7X010302 for ; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 15:48:41 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAE7mKv2014469; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 01:48:21 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4354063 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 01:48:20 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAE7mKTU014465 for ; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 01:48:20 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAE7mDQf009124 for ; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 01:48:20 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id B3C7C405001E; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 01:48:13 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101114074813.B3C7C405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 14 Nov 2010 01:48:13 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 684 FXPQ60 PGUM 140748 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 548 PM CHST SUN NOV 14 2010 .SYNOPSIS... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARIANAS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS SUNSET NEARS. 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK SHEAR LINE IS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN CNMI. && .DISCUSSION... ENE TRADE-WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWEST OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS. A WEAK SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY NEARING THE CNMI IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT WIND SPEEDS AND SHOWER COVERAGE. INCREASED CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OVER THE MARIANAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS MAY ONCE AGAIN OCCUR TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THE AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. INTRODUCED NORTH SWELL COMPONENT FRIDAY AS WAVEWATCH DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT DRIVEN BY A STRONG MID-LATITUDE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF JAPAN. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS POHNPEI TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF MAJURO WILL MOVE WEST. MODELS SHOW THE MAJURO TROUGH MOVING OVER POHNPEI WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY GENERATE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT DAY BUT WILL LEAVE SHOWERS ISOLATED FOR NOW. EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THE FIRST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE HAS MOVED WEST OF KOSRAE...SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND IT AND EAST OF KOSRAE. KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS A RESULT. THE SAME TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREDICTED FOR POHNPEI WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS KOSRAE TUESDAY NIGHT. UKMET INDICATES THIS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT THAT TIME BUT LEFT SHOWERS ISOLATED AS TROUGH APPEARS WEAK AT THIS TIME. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED WEST OF PALAU THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALAU AND YAP. SATELLITE INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS PALAU TONIGHT AND MODELS KEEP IT IN THROUGH MONDAY. WENT WITH THAT THOUGHT AND ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND BE NEAR PALAU SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH ACTIVITY WITH THE TROUGH AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY BEGS TO DIFFER. TEMPTED TO ADD SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR PALAU TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT OPTED OUT FOR NOW. ALSO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY COULD SLIDE SOUTH OF PALAU SINCE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF 6N. LINGERING ACTIVITY IS JUST WEST OF YAP. FEEL THAT ISOLATED WILL BE PREVAILING SHOWER COVERAGE TONIGHT AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH CBS SO CLOSE TO THE YAP AREA FEEL THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT. MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SHOWERS TUESDAY BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAY PASS SOUTH OF YAP. THE SAME TROUGH PREDICTED ABOVE FOR POHNPEI ON WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED TO PASS ACROSS CHUUK THURSDAY. WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ WILLIAMS/ZIOBRO +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.