From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Nov 15 03:57:01 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAEJv0ES018181 for ; Mon, 15 Nov 2010 03:57:01 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAEBHvvb006383; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 13:56:43 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4360995 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 13:56:43 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAEJuhlD002559 for ; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 13:56:43 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAEJuaBg019889 for ; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 13:56:42 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 3C04B4050021; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 13:56:36 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101114195636.3C04B4050021@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 14 Nov 2010 13:56:36 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 260 FXPQ60 PGUM 141956 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 556 AM CHST MON NOV 15 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS JUST N-NE OF MINAMI TORISHIMA THIS MORNING. IN RESPONSE... THE SHEAR LINE SOUTH OF THE HIGH HAS SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND AND IS SLOWLY EXTENDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN CNMI. && .DISCUSSION... WITH THE SHEAR LINE CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TODAY...ITS LEADING EDGE WILL REACH SAIPAN AND TINIAN ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD OVER ROTA AND GUAM BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATES THE SHEAR LINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. IT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HIGH-END ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH STRONGER WINDS FOR THE MARIANS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDWEEK... DECREASED LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE. && .MARINE... COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY BUILD TO NEAR 9 FEET BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR LINE OVER OUR WATERS WEAKEN. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED BETWEEN TWO WEAK TROUGHS...ONE NEAR POHNPEI AND THE OTHER NEAR MAJURO. KOSRAE WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE MAJURO AND POHNPEI SEE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS TODAY. LATEST GFS40 INITIALIZES BEST WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEPS THE BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR MAJURO AND POHNPEI THROUGH TODAY. SINCE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CALL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY BECOME SCATTERED AT TIMES TODAY. ALSO INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AT POHNPEI BASED ON PERIODIC OCCURRENCE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREA OBSERVED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH WNW OF PALAU HAS INCREASED NOW THAT THE TROUGH HAS EXITED TO THE WEST...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL SEND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TOWARD BOTH PALAU AND YAP TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL FIRST ARRIVE AT YAP MIDDAY TODAY THEN PALAU BY TONIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY TUESDAY TO CLOSE THE WEEK. CHUUK SITS JUST WEST OF A BAND OF CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER MICRONESIA. FOR NOW...MODELS KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY ISOLATED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FOR TONIGHT OR EVEN TUESDAY IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SOLIDIFY WHILE NEARING CHUUK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ CHAN/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.