Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Nov 2010 13:56:36 -0600

260 
FXPQ60 PGUM 141956
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
556 AM CHST MON NOV 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IS JUST N-NE OF MINAMI TORISHIMA THIS MORNING. IN RESPONSE...
THE SHEAR LINE SOUTH OF THE HIGH HAS SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF WAKE
ISLAND AND IS SLOWLY EXTENDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN CNMI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE SHEAR LINE CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TODAY...ITS LEADING EDGE WILL REACH SAIPAN AND TINIAN ON
TUESDAY AND SPREAD OVER ROTA AND GUAM BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST
IR SATELLITE INDICATES THE SHEAR LINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. IT
WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HIGH-END ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
STRONGER WINDS FOR THE MARIANS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS
THE HIGH MOVES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDWEEK...
DECREASED LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR LINE TO
DISSIPATE.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN GRADUALLY BUILD TO NEAR 9 FEET BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHEAR LINE OVER OUR WATERS WEAKEN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED BETWEEN TWO 
WEAK TROUGHS...ONE NEAR POHNPEI AND THE OTHER NEAR MAJURO. KOSRAE 
WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS 
WHILE MAJURO AND POHNPEI SEE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS TODAY. LATEST 
GFS40 INITIALIZES BEST WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION COMPARED TO THE 
OTHER MODELS AND KEEPS THE BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR MAJURO AND 
POHNPEI THROUGH TODAY. SINCE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE 
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CALL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...DECIDED TO 
CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY BECOME SCATTERED 
AT TIMES TODAY. ALSO INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY 
AT POHNPEI BASED ON PERIODIC OCCURRENCE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE 
AREA OBSERVED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH WNW OF PALAU HAS INCREASED NOW 
THAT THE TROUGH HAS EXITED TO THE WEST...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH 
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL SEND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY 
A THUNDERSTORM TOWARD BOTH PALAU AND YAP TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS 
WILL FIRST ARRIVE AT YAP MIDDAY TODAY THEN PALAU BY TONIGHT. DRIER 
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY TUESDAY TO CLOSE THE WEEK. CHUUK SITS 
JUST WEST OF A BAND OF CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER 
MICRONESIA. FOR NOW...MODELS KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY ISOLATED...BUT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FOR TONIGHT OR EVEN 
TUESDAY IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SOLIDIFY WHILE NEARING CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CHAN/W. AYDLETT

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