Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Nov 2010 23:56:32 -0600

465 
FXPQ60 PGUM 150556
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
356 PM CHST MON NOV 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SHEAR LINE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC
TO JUST NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN. EXPECT THIS SHEAR LINE TO
BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE MARIANAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEAR LINE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN IS MOVING
WEST. PROJECTING THE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGS THE
SHEAR LINE ACROSS TINIAN AND SAIPAN TONIGHT AND GUAM AND ROTA ON
TUESDAY. AT TIMES THIS TYPE OF PROJECTION WOULD BE RISKY AS SHEAR
LINES ARE NOT THE MOST BEHAVED WEATHER FEATURE...BUT MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE. BROKE UP ZONES TO BRING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO TINIAN AND
SAIPAN TONIGHT AND ALL OF THE MARIANAS TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH IF THE SHEAR LINE BECOMES
BRIEFLY ACTIVE THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF RAIN CLOSE TO SCATTERED.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE INCREASED ACTIVITY WOULD BE BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. AT ANY RATE WILL LEAVE SHOWERS ISOLATED AS
THIS SHEAR LINE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO ACTIVE. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL COMBINED WITH WIND WAVES WILL KEEP COMBINED
SEAS NEAR 8 FEET THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL DECREASE THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW COMBINED SEAS TO DECREASE. A
NORTH SWELL ENTERS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL ONLY
SERVE TO KEEP SURF UP ON NORTH FACING REEFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST 
MAINTAINS ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE THREE LOCATIONS. WEATHER NEAR 
MAJURO HAS STRATIFIED AND WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. THE NARROW BAND 
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD BRINGING 
SHOWERS TO KOSRAE. GFS KEEPS THE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
REGION...DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS EAST OF CHUUK THIS MORNING HAVE STRATIFIED WITH MOST OF THE 
REMAINING ACTIVITY PASSING JUST SOUTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT A BIT BY TOMORROW. YAP AND PALAU SIT BETWEEN A 
TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A WEAK CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWERS WILL PASS NEAR YAP TONIGHT. 
FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME AS THE CLUSTER 
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS STRATIFICATION. WINDS 
WILL BE LIGHT AT PALAU TODAY AND TOMORROW AS LIGHT TO CALM WINDS 
ENVELOP THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. GFS HOLDS THIS FEATURE IN 
THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. 

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

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