From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Nov 15 13:57:16 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAF5vFt8013802 for ; Mon, 15 Nov 2010 13:57:15 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAF3eOJC006383; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 23:56:39 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4365149 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 23:56:39 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAF5ucDx003523 for ; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 23:56:38 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAF5uWor020389 for ; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 23:56:38 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 41284405001E; Sun, 14 Nov 2010 23:56:32 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101115055632.41284405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 14 Nov 2010 23:56:32 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 465 FXPQ60 PGUM 150556 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 356 PM CHST MON NOV 15 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A SHEAR LINE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC TO JUST NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN. EXPECT THIS SHEAR LINE TO BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE MARIANAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION... SHEAR LINE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN IS MOVING WEST. PROJECTING THE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGS THE SHEAR LINE ACROSS TINIAN AND SAIPAN TONIGHT AND GUAM AND ROTA ON TUESDAY. AT TIMES THIS TYPE OF PROJECTION WOULD BE RISKY AS SHEAR LINES ARE NOT THE MOST BEHAVED WEATHER FEATURE...BUT MODELS SEEM TO AGREE. BROKE UP ZONES TO BRING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO TINIAN AND SAIPAN TONIGHT AND ALL OF THE MARIANAS TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH IF THE SHEAR LINE BECOMES BRIEFLY ACTIVE THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF RAIN CLOSE TO SCATTERED. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE INCREASED ACTIVITY WOULD BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. AT ANY RATE WILL LEAVE SHOWERS ISOLATED AS THIS SHEAR LINE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO ACTIVE. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL COMBINED WITH WIND WAVES WILL KEEP COMBINED SEAS NEAR 8 FEET THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL DECREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW COMBINED SEAS TO DECREASE. A NORTH SWELL ENTERS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL ONLY SERVE TO KEEP SURF UP ON NORTH FACING REEFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... NO MAJOR CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST MAINTAINS ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE THREE LOCATIONS. WEATHER NEAR MAJURO HAS STRATIFIED AND WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. THE NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD BRINGING SHOWERS TO KOSRAE. GFS KEEPS THE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...DRIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS EAST OF CHUUK THIS MORNING HAVE STRATIFIED WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY PASSING JUST SOUTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT A BIT BY TOMORROW. YAP AND PALAU SIT BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A WEAK CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWERS WILL PASS NEAR YAP TONIGHT. FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME AS THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOWS STRATIFICATION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT PALAU TODAY AND TOMORROW AS LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ENVELOP THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. GFS HOLDS THIS FEATURE IN THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.