Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 2010 00:22:14 -0600

223 
FXPQ60 PGUM 160622
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
422 PM CHST TUE NOV 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SHEAR LINE IN THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
THOUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WINDS
BEHIND THE SHEAR-LINE WILL CAUSE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SHEAR LINE WILL
KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE BETTER CONDITIONS OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN. FELT IT
WAS NOT WORTH SPLITTING THE ZONES ESPECIALLY IF THINGS CLOUD UP
OVERNIGHT OVER THAT AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE
PUSHING ACROSS LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE DOES SHOW CLOUDS
NEAR 150E. MODELS TRY TO PUSH A TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. AT TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
STAY SOUTH OF GUAM. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND SHOULD BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY SHOWING SEAS UP TO 8 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SURF OF 8 TO 
10 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECOND
NORTHERLY SWELL ENTERS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE SURF SHOULD
DECREASE ON EAST FACING REEFS BY THURSDAY NIGHT IT WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED ON NORTH FACING REEFS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF
THIS NORTHERLY SWELL. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
MORNING SHOWERS AT KOSRAE CLEARED OUT AS THE TROUGH MOVED WEST. 
CURRENTLY EAST OF POHNPEI...THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH POHNPEI 
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONVECTION IS NOT NEAR AS IMPRESSIVE AS AT 
KOSRAE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH WEST OF MAJURO IS EXPECTED TO 
PASS NORTH OF MAJURO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MODELS KEEP 
CONDITIONS STATUS QUO THIS WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY THE 
WEEKEND. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTH OF
CHUUK...EXTENDING TO NEAR 140E. THE WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH OF YAP
LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAT 24 HRS AGO. CALM WINDS SOUTH OF THE
CIRCULATION YESTERDAY ARE NOW WEAK WESTERLIES. WEATHER AT CHUUK
THIS MORNING HAS STEADILY PUSHED SOUTH OF CHUUK...WHILE YAP AND
KOROR HAVE ENJOYED PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY. FORECAST KEEPS SHOWERS
ISOLATED TONIGHT FOR KOROR. WAS THINKING SCATTERED...BUT THE TREND
TO THE EAST HAS MUCH OF THE WEATHER PUSHING SOUTHWARD. THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO KOROR TONIGHT...IF
SO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE ADDED LATER TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS KOROR...BUT DUE TO A SHEAR LINE
DROPPING SOUTH OF GUAM...WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER AT YAP.
THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI WILL PASS THROUGH CHUUK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GFS SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
NEARS CHUUK. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AS IT DID NEAR KOSRAE THIS
MORNING...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
THURSDAY AT CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

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