From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Nov 16 14:22:42 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAG6Mftv022001 for ; Tue, 16 Nov 2010 14:22:41 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAFJI6vi006383; Tue, 16 Nov 2010 00:22:22 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4382493 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 16 Nov 2010 00:22:21 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAG6MLH6019452 for ; Tue, 16 Nov 2010 00:22:21 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAG6MEo5022801 for ; Tue, 16 Nov 2010 00:22:20 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9E920405001E; Tue, 16 Nov 2010 00:22:14 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101116062214.9E920405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 16 Nov 2010 00:22:14 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 223 FXPQ60 PGUM 160622 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 422 PM CHST TUE NOV 16 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A SHEAR LINE IN THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WINDS BEHIND THE SHEAR-LINE WILL CAUSE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARIANAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SHEAR LINE WILL KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE FORECAST DESPITE BETTER CONDITIONS OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN. FELT IT WAS NOT WORTH SPLITTING THE ZONES ESPECIALLY IF THINGS CLOUD UP OVERNIGHT OVER THAT AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE DOES SHOW CLOUDS NEAR 150E. MODELS TRY TO PUSH A TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AT TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF GUAM. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... BUOY SHOWING SEAS UP TO 8 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECOND NORTHERLY SWELL ENTERS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE SURF SHOULD DECREASE ON EAST FACING REEFS BY THURSDAY NIGHT IT WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED ON NORTH FACING REEFS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF THIS NORTHERLY SWELL. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... MORNING SHOWERS AT KOSRAE CLEARED OUT AS THE TROUGH MOVED WEST. CURRENTLY EAST OF POHNPEI...THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH POHNPEI TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONVECTION IS NOT NEAR AS IMPRESSIVE AS AT KOSRAE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH WEST OF MAJURO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF MAJURO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS STATUS QUO THIS WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY THE WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTH OF CHUUK...EXTENDING TO NEAR 140E. THE WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH OF YAP LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAT 24 HRS AGO. CALM WINDS SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION YESTERDAY ARE NOW WEAK WESTERLIES. WEATHER AT CHUUK THIS MORNING HAS STEADILY PUSHED SOUTH OF CHUUK...WHILE YAP AND KOROR HAVE ENJOYED PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY. FORECAST KEEPS SHOWERS ISOLATED TONIGHT FOR KOROR. WAS THINKING SCATTERED...BUT THE TREND TO THE EAST HAS MUCH OF THE WEATHER PUSHING SOUTHWARD. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO KOROR TONIGHT...IF SO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE ADDED LATER TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS KOROR...BUT DUE TO A SHEAR LINE DROPPING SOUTH OF GUAM...WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER AT YAP. THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI WILL PASS THROUGH CHUUK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT NEARS CHUUK. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AS IT DID NEAR KOSRAE THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AT CHUUK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.