From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Nov 17 04:58:46 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAGKwjxZ009805 for ; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 04:58:46 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAGFAfv6006383; Tue, 16 Nov 2010 14:58:30 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4391922 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 16 Nov 2010 14:58:29 -0600 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAGKwTqO000199 for ; Tue, 16 Nov 2010 14:58:29 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather.admin.niu.edu (weather.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.47]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAGKwMDA013659 for ; Tue, 16 Nov 2010 14:58:29 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id ECB652290027; Tue, 16 Nov 2010 14:57:32 -0600 (CST) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 suspectscore=3 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1011160161 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20101116205757.ECB652290027@weather.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 16 Nov 2010 14:57:32 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 968 FXPQ60 PGUM 162056 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 656 AM CHST WED NOV 17 2010 .SYNOPSIS... INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE LINING UP FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL NEAR GUAM AND ROTA. SHEAR LINE IS STILL HOVERING SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR 12N. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A TUTT IS DEVELOPING IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS MEANS INCREASING UPPER- LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST ZONES. HOWEVER...LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHEAR LINE WAS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. && .DISCUSSION... NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE SHEAR LINE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER GUAM AND ROTA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RADAR IMAGERY...IF AVAILABLE...WOULD BE USEFUL IN DIAGNOSING THE MESOSCALE BEHAVIOR OF THE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHEAR LINE IF IT WERE AVAILABLE. IF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOUTH OF GUAM...FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR GUAM AND ROTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER GUAM AND ROTA FADES IN THE MODELS AFTER TONIGHT AS THE SHEAR LINE BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS ARE FORESEEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... IPAN BUOY CONTINUES TO REPORT COMBINED SEAS AROUND 8 FEET COMING FROM THE ENE. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE MARINE SWELL GRIDS SO NO SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY. STILL EXPECT WINDS...SEAS AND SURF TO PEAK TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SLIGHT NORTHEAST SWELL WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVEL SURF ON NORTH FACING EXPOSURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF A TROUGH WEST OF POHNPEI IS SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA SO WILL CARRY SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL MIDDAY TODAY. A DEVELOPING BAND OF CONVECTION IS VISIBLE IN IR SAT IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH END OF THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI EASTWARD TO JUST BEYOND THE MARSHALLS BETWEEN 7N AND 8N. KWAJALEIN RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJURO MARINE ZONE BISECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN HALF. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE INCLUDED SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE MAJURO ATOLL. AS THE CONVECTION SHIFTS FARTHER WESTWARD...SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE MAJURO MARINE ZONE SHOULD DECREASE TO ISOLATED BY NOON TODAY. PROXIMITY OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL KEEP SKIES OVER MAJURO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONDITIONS HAVE QUIETED DOWN NEAR CHUUK FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE NORTHERN TIP OF A TRADE-WIND TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS AN END TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE TOMORROW AND PORTENDS DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A NEAR- EQUATORIAL TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF KOROR WILL COMBINE WITH TWO SEPARATE WEAK CIRCULATIONS SE OF YAP AND SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK TO POSE MORE OF A FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THE WEST. FORTUNATELY...LATEST GFS40 IS SHOWING BETTER CONSENSUS WITH RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 5N FROM 133E TO 141E...WHILE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PASSES NORTHWARD OVER YAP AND PALAU. GFS KEEPS SHOWERS ISOLATED OVER BOTH LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BY SATURDAY. THE WEATHER COULD POSSIBLY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER YAP AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA. FORECAST UPDATES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR YAP...AS ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG 11N NORTHWEST OF YAP AND SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.