Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 2010 00:27:47 -0600

115 
FXPQ60 PGUM 170627
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
430 PM CHST WED NOV 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA THIS 
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.
A SHEAR LINE REMAINS SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR 12N. WATER VAPOR LOOPS 
SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS 
ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN 
REPORTED...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. THE 
SHEARLINE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE DRIER 
CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS ARE FORESEEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE SECTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND GUAM AND ROTA.
WINDS...SEAS AND SURF ARE STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SLIGHT 
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVEL 
SURF ON NORTH FACING EXPOSURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 
6N AND 10N WHILE ASCAT WINDS SHOW SE WINDS CONVERGING TOWARD THIS 
AREA. GFS GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED AND GFS INDICATES THIS CONVERGENT 
PATTERN WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEXT 5 DAYS. TIMING 
ANY PARTICULAR EVENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE DIFFICULT. MAJURO 
BUOY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS 5-6 FT WITH VARIABLE PERIOD OF 9-12 SEC. 
THIS IS PROBABLY ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE MARINE ZONE. WW3 WAVE 
GUIDANCE MAY ALSO BE ON THE LOW SIDE CONSIDERING PERSISTENT TRADE 
WINDS. ADJUSTED COMBINED SEAS UP A LITTLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WEATHER WILL BE CHANGEABLE DURING NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THIS AREA. 
ASCAT AND SAT LOOPS INDICATE WEAK CIRCULATIONS NEAR 3N137E AND NEAR 
2N148E. A SHEAR LINE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN YAP AND GUAM. 
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS JUST SOUTH OF KOROR...AND ANOTHER 
AREA OF CONVECTION WAS MOVING ACROSS CHUUK STATE THIS AFTN. MOST 
MODELS INITIALIZE DECENTLY BUT ARE ERRATIC WITH SOLUTIONS. FOLLOWED 
GFS GUIDANCE AND ANY CHANGES WERE MAINLY FOR THE NEAR TERM. LATEST 
WW3 WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MARGINALLY LARGER WAVES AND MOST 
FORECASTS WERE ADJUSTED 1 TO 2 FT HIGHER.

&&

SIMPSON

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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