From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Nov 17 14:28:14 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAH6SD6j032041 for ; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 14:28:13 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAGJkAUL016963; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 00:27:55 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4397936 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 00:27:55 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAH6RsNa007403 for ; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 00:27:54 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAH6RmwJ019048 for ; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 00:27:54 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0F4A74050028; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 00:27:47 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101117062748.0F4A74050028@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 17 Nov 2010 00:27:47 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 115 FXPQ60 PGUM 170627 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 430 PM CHST WED NOV 17 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. A SHEAR LINE REMAINS SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR 12N. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. && .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN REPORTED...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. THE SHEARLINE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS ARE FORESEEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE SECTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND GUAM AND ROTA. WINDS...SEAS AND SURF ARE STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SLIGHT NORTHEAST SWELL WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVEL SURF ON NORTH FACING EXPOSURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6N AND 10N WHILE ASCAT WINDS SHOW SE WINDS CONVERGING TOWARD THIS AREA. GFS GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED AND GFS INDICATES THIS CONVERGENT PATTERN WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEXT 5 DAYS. TIMING ANY PARTICULAR EVENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE DIFFICULT. MAJURO BUOY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS 5-6 FT WITH VARIABLE PERIOD OF 9-12 SEC. THIS IS PROBABLY ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE MARINE ZONE. WW3 WAVE GUIDANCE MAY ALSO BE ON THE LOW SIDE CONSIDERING PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS. ADJUSTED COMBINED SEAS UP A LITTLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... WEATHER WILL BE CHANGEABLE DURING NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THIS AREA. ASCAT AND SAT LOOPS INDICATE WEAK CIRCULATIONS NEAR 3N137E AND NEAR 2N148E. A SHEAR LINE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN YAP AND GUAM. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS JUST SOUTH OF KOROR...AND ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS MOVING ACROSS CHUUK STATE THIS AFTN. MOST MODELS INITIALIZE DECENTLY BUT ARE ERRATIC WITH SOLUTIONS. FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE AND ANY CHANGES WERE MAINLY FOR THE NEAR TERM. LATEST WW3 WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MARGINALLY LARGER WAVES AND MOST FORECASTS WERE ADJUSTED 1 TO 2 FT HIGHER. && SIMPSON .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.