Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 2010 16:01:35 -0600

234 
FXPQ60 PGUM 172201
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
801 AM CHST THU NOV 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A DECREASE IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A SHEAR LINE DISSIPATES
AND LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. FLAT RIDGING ALOFT IS CREATING 
INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WINDS DECREASING DURING THE
WEEKEND.
 
&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CEASED ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS A SHEAR LINE
DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE DECREASES
IN RESPONSE TO FLAT RIDGING ALOFT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS SUGGEST A DECREASE IN
TRADE WIND SPEEDS AS A FRONT TO THE NORTH ADVANCES CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS. ASSUMING THE FRONTAL BAND STALLS TO THE NORTH...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&
 
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE SECTION. WINDS...SEAS AND SURF ARE STILL
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SLIGHT NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING
TONIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVEL SURF
ON NORTH FACING EXPOSURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 
&&
 
.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
6N AND 10N. THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST LOCALES. OVERNIGHT ASCAT WINDS SHOWED CONVERGENT SE
WINDS SUPPORTING THE BAND OF CONVECTION. GFS INDICATES THIS
CONVERGENT PATTERN WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS. TIMING ANY PARTICULAR SCATTERED SHOWER EVENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT.
 
&&
 
.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT SHOWED A WESTWARD
MOVING CIRCULATION...JTWC INVEST AREA 91W...PASSING SOUTH OF
KOROR AND YAP WITH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
ISLANDS AS A SHEAR LINE DISSIPATES TO THE NORTH. GFS PROGS A
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF GUAM TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO YAP AND KOROR BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS
WINDS BACKING FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

MCELROY/WROE

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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