From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Nov 18 06:02:19 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAHM2HsF006942 for ; Thu, 18 Nov 2010 06:02:18 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAHLUiBS000834; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 16:01:42 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4409938 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 16:01:42 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAHM1fiV021775 for ; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 16:01:41 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAHM1ZRH008672 for ; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 16:01:41 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 3D94D4050020; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 16:01:35 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101117220135.3D94D4050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 17 Nov 2010 16:01:35 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 234 FXPQ60 PGUM 172201 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 801 AM CHST THU NOV 18 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DECREASE IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A SHEAR LINE DISSIPATES AND LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. FLAT RIDGING ALOFT IS CREATING INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WINDS DECREASING DURING THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CEASED ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS A SHEAR LINE DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE DECREASES IN RESPONSE TO FLAT RIDGING ALOFT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS SUGGEST A DECREASE IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS AS A FRONT TO THE NORTH ADVANCES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. ASSUMING THE FRONTAL BAND STALLS TO THE NORTH...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE SECTION. WINDS...SEAS AND SURF ARE STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SLIGHT NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING TONIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVEL SURF ON NORTH FACING EXPOSURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6N AND 10N. THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST LOCALES. OVERNIGHT ASCAT WINDS SHOWED CONVERGENT SE WINDS SUPPORTING THE BAND OF CONVECTION. GFS INDICATES THIS CONVERGENT PATTERN WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TIMING ANY PARTICULAR SCATTERED SHOWER EVENT WILL BE DIFFICULT. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT SHOWED A WESTWARD MOVING CIRCULATION...JTWC INVEST AREA 91W...PASSING SOUTH OF KOROR AND YAP WITH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS AS A SHEAR LINE DISSIPATES TO THE NORTH. GFS PROGS A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF GUAM TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP AND KOROR BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS WINDS BACKING FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE WEEKEND. && MCELROY/WROE .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.