From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Nov 18 13:49:41 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAI5nePR011572 for ; Thu, 18 Nov 2010 13:49:40 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAHLUiXf000834; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 23:49:25 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4413715 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 23:49:25 -0600 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAI5nPAK016342 for ; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 23:49:25 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAI5nIYm009672 for ; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 23:49:24 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 976BC405001E; Wed, 17 Nov 2010 23:49:18 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101118054918.976BC405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 17 Nov 2010 23:49:18 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 860 FXPQ60 PGUM 180549 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 PM CHST THU NOV 18 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RIDGING ALOFT IS CREATING INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WINDS DECREASING DURING THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS SUGGEST A DECREASE IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS AS A FRONT TO THE NORTH ADVANCES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. ASSUMING THE FRONTAL BAND STALLS TO THE NORTH...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WINDS...SEAS AND SURF REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SLIGHT NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING TONIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVEL SURF ON NORTH FACING EXPOSURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6N AND 12N...BUT ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS BAND HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE REMAINING ACTIVE AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST LOCALES. ASCAT WINDS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVERGENT SE WINDS SUPPORTING THE BAND OF CONVECTION. GFS INDICATES THIS CONVERGENT PATTERN WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TIMING ANY PARTICULAR SCATTERED SHOWER EVENT WILL BE DIFFICULT. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION BETWEEN YAP AND CHUUK...MOVING WEST SLOWLY. GFS PROGS THIS AREA TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP AND KOROR TONIGHT. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS WINDS BACKING FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE WEEKEND. && POWELL .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.