Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 2010 23:49:18 -0600

860 
FXPQ60 PGUM 180549
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM CHST THU NOV 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGING ALOFT IS CREATING INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS. MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WINDS 
DECREASING DURING THE WEEKEND.
 
&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS SUGGEST A DECREASE IN
TRADE WIND SPEEDS AS A FRONT TO THE NORTH ADVANCES CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS. ASSUMING THE FRONTAL BAND STALLS TO THE NORTH...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&
 
.MARINE...
WINDS...SEAS AND SURF REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SLIGHT 
NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING TONIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE RIP 
CURRENT RISK LEVEL SURF ON NORTH FACING EXPOSURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.
 
&&
 
.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 
6N AND 12N...BUT ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS BAND HAS DECREASED OVER THE 
PAST FEW HOURS. THE REMAINING ACTIVE AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED 
NORTH OF THE FORECAST LOCALES. ASCAT WINDS CONTINUE TO SHOW 
CONVERGENT SE WINDS SUPPORTING THE BAND OF CONVECTION. GFS INDICATES 
THIS CONVERGENT PATTERN WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE 
NEXT 5 DAYS. TIMING ANY PARTICULAR SCATTERED SHOWER EVENT WILL BE 
DIFFICULT.
 
&&
 
.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION BETWEEN YAP AND 
CHUUK...MOVING WEST SLOWLY. GFS PROGS THIS AREA TO BRING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS TO YAP AND KOROR TONIGHT. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS WINDS BACKING 
FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

POWELL

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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