Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 2010 14:01:27 -0600

273 
FXPQ60 PGUM 182001
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
601 AM CHST FRI NOV 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM
WILL CAUSE WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS TO BE SOUTHEAST TODAY. RADAR
INDICATED ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING CLOSE TO THE MARIANAS HAS
TURNED WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE MODELS
PICKED UP ON THIS SO ADDED IT ONLY TO THE FIRST PERIOD. NO CHANGE
TO FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS EAST TRADE-WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND NORTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP COMBINED SEAS
AT NEAR 7 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF WILL BE MODERATE ON EAST
AND NORTH FACING REEFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MAJURO THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF MAJURO BUT
FEEL THAT THE MAIN FORCING IS STILL FARTHER EAST...SO THE PRIMARY
RAIN EVENT WAS DELAYED UNTIL TONIGHT. MODELS KEEP KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI FAIRLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GENTLE WINDS BUT
STRONGER ENE TRADE WINDS AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR
WETTER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE EVIDENCED IN THE 12Z SOUNDING AND
WV IMAGERY AT CHUUK WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY INCREASING TRADES AND CONVERGE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEXT WEEK AND BRING INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE BUT MODELS
ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR AS TO EXTENT OF ACTIVITY. COMPLICATED
FORECAST EXISTS FOR YAP AND KOROR WITH RESPECT TO A WEAK
CIRCULATION AND NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF KOROR. MODELS
ARE CONSERVATIVE IN KEEPING SHOWERS OVER THE ARE TODAY BUT IR
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE SHOWERS NEAR KOROR...WITH CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF BOTH LOCATIONS. FOR THE SHORT
TERM AT KOROR...WARMING CLOUD TOPS INDICATIVE OF STRATIFORM
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE SHOWERS
TO THE EAST EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE AT YAP TONIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION AND FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS

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