From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Nov 19 04:01:49 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAIK1lRA001261 for ; Fri, 19 Nov 2010 04:01:48 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAIHNpTD000834; Thu, 18 Nov 2010 14:01:34 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4422811 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 18 Nov 2010 14:01:34 -0600 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAIK1Y63016922 for ; Thu, 18 Nov 2010 14:01:34 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather.admin.niu.edu (weather.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.47]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAIK1Rua007884 for ; Thu, 18 Nov 2010 14:01:33 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 36C7B2290026; Thu, 18 Nov 2010 14:01:27 -0600 (CST) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 suspectscore=3 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1011180166 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20101118200127.36C7B2290026@weather.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 18 Nov 2010 14:01:27 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 273 FXPQ60 PGUM 182001 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 601 AM CHST FRI NOV 19 2010 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM WILL CAUSE WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS TO BE SOUTHEAST TODAY. RADAR INDICATED ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING CLOSE TO THE MARIANAS HAS TURNED WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS SO ADDED IT ONLY TO THE FIRST PERIOD. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND NORTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP COMBINED SEAS AT NEAR 7 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF WILL BE MODERATE ON EAST AND NORTH FACING REEFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MAJURO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF MAJURO BUT FEEL THAT THE MAIN FORCING IS STILL FARTHER EAST...SO THE PRIMARY RAIN EVENT WAS DELAYED UNTIL TONIGHT. MODELS KEEP KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FAIRLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GENTLE WINDS BUT STRONGER ENE TRADE WINDS AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR WETTER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE EVIDENCED IN THE 12Z SOUNDING AND WV IMAGERY AT CHUUK WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY INCREASING TRADES AND CONVERGE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK AND BRING INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE BUT MODELS ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR AS TO EXTENT OF ACTIVITY. COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR YAP AND KOROR WITH RESPECT TO A WEAK CIRCULATION AND NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF KOROR. MODELS ARE CONSERVATIVE IN KEEPING SHOWERS OVER THE ARE TODAY BUT IR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE SHOWERS NEAR KOROR...WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF BOTH LOCATIONS. FOR THE SHORT TERM AT KOROR...WARMING CLOUD TOPS INDICATIVE OF STRATIFORM PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE SHOWERS TO THE EAST EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE AT YAP TONIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.