From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Nov 19 15:18:02 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAJ7I0Ww008126 for ; Fri, 19 Nov 2010 15:18:01 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAIIHtZS000969; Fri, 19 Nov 2010 01:17:38 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4429837 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 19 Nov 2010 01:17:38 -0600 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAJ7HcuR022139 for ; Fri, 19 Nov 2010 01:17:38 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAJ7HVXe001961 for ; Fri, 19 Nov 2010 01:17:37 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id B49FA405001F; Fri, 19 Nov 2010 01:17:29 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101119071729.B49FA405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2010 01:17:29 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 255 FXPQ60 PGUM 190717 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 600 PM CHST FRI NOV 19 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUAM WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .DISCUSSION... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS IS MAINTAINING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO TURN MORE EASTERLY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY. ALSO...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .MARINE... EASTERLY TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP COMBINED SEAS NEAR 7 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF WILL BE MODERATE ON EAST AND NORTH FACING REEFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAJURO THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM MAJURO TO KWAJALEIN. FORECAST MODELS KEEP KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FAIRLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GENTLE WINDS. HOWEVER...STRONGER EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS...AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR WETTER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE EVIDENCED IN THE 00Z SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT CHUUK WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE TRADES AND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL UNCLEAR AS TO EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. A COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR YAP AND KOROR WITH RESPECT TO A WEAK CIRCULATION AND NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IN THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE SHOWERS NEAR KOROR...WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP MAINLY NEAR YAP. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OVER YAP TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KOROR. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ HOUSTON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.