Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2010 01:17:29 -0600

255 
FXPQ60 PGUM 190717
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
600 PM CHST FRI NOV 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUAM WILL 
MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS TONIGHT. EXPECT 
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS IS 
MAINTAINING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO TURN MORE 
EASTERLY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY. ALSO...EXPECT ONLY 
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP 
COMBINED SEAS NEAR 7 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF WILL BE MODERATE 
ON EAST AND NORTH FACING REEFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A RISK OF 
RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE OVER THE MARSHALL 
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAJURO THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM MAJURO TO KWAJALEIN. FORECAST 
MODELS KEEP KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FAIRLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 
GENTLE WINDS. HOWEVER...STRONGER EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS...AND 
INCREASED CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR WETTER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE EVIDENCED IN THE 00Z SOUNDING AND 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT CHUUK WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS 
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE TRADES AND CONVERGENCE ARE 
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE. 
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL UNCLEAR AS TO EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. A 
COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR YAP AND KOROR WITH RESPECT TO A WEAK 
CIRCULATION AND NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IN THE AREA. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE SHOWERS NEAR KOROR...WITH CONVECTION 
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP MAINLY NEAR YAP. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD 
REMAIN OVER YAP TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KOROR. 

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

HOUSTON

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