From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Nov 20 05:18:04 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAJLI29w026048 for ; Sat, 20 Nov 2010 05:18:03 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAJ60ono000834; Fri, 19 Nov 2010 15:17:44 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4436314 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 19 Nov 2010 15:17:44 -0600 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAJLHiJi017596 for ; Fri, 19 Nov 2010 15:17:44 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAJLHb2e025776 for ; Fri, 19 Nov 2010 15:17:44 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D195A405001E; Fri, 19 Nov 2010 15:17:37 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101119211737.D195A405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2010 15:17:37 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 850 FXPQ60 PGUM 192117 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 717 AM CHST SAT NOV 20 2010 .SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... DESPITE THE SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING EXPECT ISOLATED WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF OKINAWA IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER AND MOVE EASTWARD. OF COURSE THIS AREA WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MARIANAS BUT IT WILL HAVE A SLIGHT EFFECT ON IT. MODELS SHOW A NEUTRAL POINT SOUTH OF THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN BY MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE THAT THE EAST TRADE-WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OF TODAY WILL TAPER OFF TO 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN ISOLATED. && .MARINE... AN EAST TRADE-WIND AND A NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. THESE SWELLS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY. THE SLACKENING OF THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWER WIND WAVES. WITH SEAS AND SWELLS DECREASING THE SURF WILL LESSEN A BIT ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE SURF WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK AT MODERATE LEVELS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... IR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A TRADE- WIND DISTURBANCE HAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE POHNPEI...WELL AHEAD OF THE MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AT MAJURO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST OF THE MARSHALLS. KOSRAE IS EXPECTED TO AVOID MOST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT IS CONFINED MAINLY BETWEEN 9N AND 6N. UKMET AND ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER POHNPEI UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK SO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A BROAD CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF KOROR WILL PROVIDE BOTH YAP AND KOROR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. DRIER TRADE-WIND FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY BACK OVER YAP SUNDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AT KOROR AS THE CIRCULATION ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD MINDANAO ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. FOR CHUUK...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA BUT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIES JUST TO THE EAST. MODELS TEND TO DISSIPATE CONVECTION EAST OF CHUUK THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN DISTURBANCE IS STILL TO THE EAST OF CHUUK AND COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.