Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2010 15:17:37 -0600

850 
FXPQ60 PGUM 192117
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
717 AM CHST SAT NOV 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING EXPECT ISOLATED WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF OKINAWA IS
PREDICTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER AND MOVE EASTWARD. OF COURSE THIS
AREA WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MARIANAS BUT IT WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT EFFECT ON IT. MODELS SHOW A NEUTRAL POINT SOUTH OF THE
LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN BY MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE THAT
THE EAST TRADE-WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OF TODAY WILL TAPER OFF
TO 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN ISOLATED. 

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND AND A NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST. THESE SWELLS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY.
THE SLACKENING OF THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWER WIND WAVES. WITH
SEAS AND SWELLS DECREASING THE SURF WILL LESSEN A BIT ON NORTH AND
EAST FACING REEFS SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE SURF WILL REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK AT MODERATE LEVELS. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
IR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCE HAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE POHNPEI...WELL AHEAD OF
THE MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AT MAJURO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST OF THE MARSHALLS. KOSRAE
IS EXPECTED TO AVOID MOST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT IS CONFINED
MAINLY BETWEEN 9N AND 6N. UKMET AND ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
KEEP SHOWERS OVER POHNPEI UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A BROAD
CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF KOROR WILL PROVIDE BOTH YAP AND KOROR
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. DRIER TRADE-WIND FLOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY BACK OVER YAP SUNDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AT KOROR AS THE CIRCULATION
ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD MINDANAO ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. FOR CHUUK...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA BUT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIES
JUST TO THE EAST. MODELS TEND TO DISSIPATE CONVECTION EAST OF
CHUUK THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN DISTURBANCE IS STILL TO THE EAST OF
CHUUK AND COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS

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