From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Nov 21 05:27:53 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAKLRpCG002044 for ; Sun, 21 Nov 2010 05:27:52 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAK3TGZl000834; Sat, 20 Nov 2010 15:27:37 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4445344 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 20 Nov 2010 15:27:37 -0600 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAKLRbFX004167 for ; Sat, 20 Nov 2010 15:27:37 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAKLRUMn024947 for ; Sat, 20 Nov 2010 15:27:37 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id B447E405002D; Sat, 20 Nov 2010 15:27:30 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101120212730.B447E405002D@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2010 15:27:30 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 406 FXPQ60 PGUM 202127 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 727 AM CHST SUN NOV 21 2010 .SYNOPSIS...LIGHT TRADE-WINDS A FEW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 25N136E. && .DISCUSSION... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS IS PREDICTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THIS LOW WILL STAY NORTH OF 20 NORTH A NEUTRAL POINT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE TO MARIANAS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY. RADAR...WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW VERY FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. IT SEEMS THAT THIS SITUATION SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS SO KEPT SHOWER COVERAGE AT A MINIMUM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT AMOUNT TO A LARGE INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 4 TO 6 FEET ON NORTH FACING REEFS AND 5 TO 7 FEET ON EAST FACING. A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS ALSO EXPECTED ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER THE MARSHALLS AS THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE AND CONVECTION MOVE CLOSER TO KOSRAE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW MODERATE EAST TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MAJURO. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KOSRAE TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. FOR POHNPEI...MODELS DISSIPATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER KOSRAE AS IT MOVES WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... AN UPPER-LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF CHUUK IS PROVIDING SOME UPPER-LEVEL FORCING ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF CHUUK BUT DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH TODAY. ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST OF KOROR HAS PUSHED WEST OF YAP BUT WILL AFFECT KOROR TODAY. RIDGING BUILDING OVER YAP WILL ALLOW CLEARING TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY. MODEL TRENDS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER KOROR THROUGH TONIGHT SO ADJUSTED SHORT-TERM FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.