Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2010 15:27:30 -0600

406 
FXPQ60 PGUM 202127
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
727 AM CHST SUN NOV 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT TRADE-WINDS A FEW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 25N136E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS IS
PREDICTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THIS LOW
WILL STAY NORTH OF 20 NORTH A NEUTRAL POINT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE CLOSE TO MARIANAS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 MPH ON TUESDAY.

RADAR...WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW VERY FEW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. IT SEEMS THAT THIS SITUATION
SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS SO KEPT SHOWER COVERAGE AT A
MINIMUM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
WHILE THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT AMOUNT TO A LARGE INCREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST. SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 4 TO 6 FEET ON
NORTH FACING REEFS AND 5 TO 7 FEET ON EAST FACING. A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK IS ALSO EXPECTED ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER THE MARSHALLS AS THE
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE AND CONVECTION MOVE CLOSER TO KOSRAE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW MODERATE EAST TRADE WINDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
MAJURO. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KOSRAE
TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. FOR
POHNPEI...MODELS DISSIPATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
OVER KOSRAE AS IT MOVES WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO ISOLATED
SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
AN UPPER-LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF CHUUK IS PROVIDING SOME
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF CHUUK BUT DO ANTICIPATE AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH TODAY. ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST OF KOROR HAS PUSHED WEST OF YAP
BUT WILL AFFECT KOROR TODAY. RIDGING BUILDING OVER YAP WILL ALLOW
CLEARING TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY. MODEL
TRENDS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN
OVER KOROR THROUGH TONIGHT SO ADJUSTED SHORT-TERM FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS

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