Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2010 16:51:13 -0600

264 
WWPS21 NFFN 202100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 20/2251 UTC 2010 UTC.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE [1006 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 178.0W AT
202100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATON AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30C.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT IN SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BUT REMAINS
SUPRESSED ELSEWHERE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN AREA OF AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS IS GRADUALLY MOVING IT SOUTH INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING
SHEAR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

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