Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2010 02:16:05 -0600

517 
WWPS21 NFFN 210600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 21/0815 UTC 2010 UTC.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE [1006 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.3S 178.0W AT
210600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATON AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30C.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT IN SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BUT REMAINS
SUPRESSED ELSEWHERE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE GRADUALLY
MOVING IT SOUTH INTO AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

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