From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Nov 22 04:31:19 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oALKVI2V026247 for ; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 04:31:19 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oALCcKhd000834; Sun, 21 Nov 2010 14:30:50 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4454770 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 21 Nov 2010 14:30:50 -0600 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oALKUng9020011 for ; Sun, 21 Nov 2010 14:30:49 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oALKUhoX012323 for ; Sun, 21 Nov 2010 14:30:49 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6A2074050022; Sun, 21 Nov 2010 14:30:43 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101121203043.6A2074050022@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2010 14:30:43 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 996 FXPQ60 PGUM 212030 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 630 AM CHST MON NOV 22 2010 .SYNOPSIS...LIGHT TRADE-WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS TODAY. EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... NEUTRAL POINT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS DO NOT EXPECT ISLAND THUNDER TODAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND AS A RESULT BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. EAST TRADE-WINDS PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT AND WILL BE 10 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY. SHOWERS PREDICTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE FORECAST. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO LEFT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH UKMET ONLY GOES OUT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT TO DEPICTS SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE MARIANAS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SO WILL LEAVE ISOLATED IN FORECAST FOR NOW. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. IN TRUTH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL DOES DECREASE BUT IS RE-ENFORCED BY MORE SWELLS COMING FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS NEW SWELL WILL BE PRODUCED BY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSING BY NORTH OF 20N. SURF WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET ON NORTH FACING REEFS AND 5 TO 7 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN MODERATE ON NORTH AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SLOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS WEAK TROUGHS PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS POHNPEI AND MAJURO THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN AVOIDED SO FAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN...BUT COLDER CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR POHNPEI. SHOWER COVERAGE WITH BOTH SYSTEMS IS WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH POHNPEI A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE TAPERING TO ISOLATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO DOWNPLAY THE TROUGH NEAR MAJURO...DRYING IT OUT AS IT MOVES WEST TOWARDS KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE THE MAXIMUM EXTENT OF SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO CHUUK AHEAD OF A TROUGH AT POHNPEI. MORE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF CHUUK AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING TOMORROW. FARTHER WEST...YAP REMAINS PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OUT OVER PALAU. THESE SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL PULL OUT BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH BETWEEN PALAU AND CHUUK WILL MOVE IN BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND BRING MORE CLOUDS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DECIDED TO CARRY THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION SOUTH OF YAP WILL MOVE INTO PALAU TODAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.