Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2010 14:30:43 -0600

996 
FXPQ60 PGUM 212030
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
630 AM CHST MON NOV 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT TRADE-WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE MARIANAS TODAY. EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NEUTRAL POINT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
20N WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DESPITE THE
LIGHT WINDS DO NOT EXPECT ISLAND THUNDER TODAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND AS A RESULT BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL
ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. EAST TRADE-WINDS PICK
UP A BIT TONIGHT AND WILL BE 10 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY. SHOWERS
PREDICTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE FORECAST. GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO LEFT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EVEN
THOUGH UKMET ONLY GOES OUT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT TO DEPICTS
SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE MARIANAS. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SO WILL LEAVE
ISOLATED IN FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST. IN TRUTH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL DOES
DECREASE BUT IS RE-ENFORCED BY MORE SWELLS COMING FROM THE SAME
DIRECTION. THIS NEW SWELL WILL BE PRODUCED BY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSING BY NORTH OF 20N. SURF WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET ON NORTH FACING REEFS AND 5 TO 7 FEET
ON EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
REMAIN MODERATE ON NORTH AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SLOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS
WEAK TROUGHS PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS POHNPEI AND MAJURO THIS
MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN AVOIDED SO FAR THIS MORNING
ACROSS MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN...BUT COLDER CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING
TO FORM NEAR POHNPEI. SHOWER COVERAGE WITH BOTH SYSTEMS IS WIDELY
SCATTERED AT BEST. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH
POHNPEI A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
TAPERING TO ISOLATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO
DOWNPLAY THE TROUGH NEAR MAJURO...DRYING IT OUT AS IT MOVES WEST
TOWARDS KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE THE MAXIMUM EXTENT OF SHOWER COVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO CHUUK
AHEAD OF A TROUGH AT POHNPEI. MORE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF
CHUUK AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING TOMORROW. FARTHER WEST...YAP REMAINS PARTLY CLOUDY AND
DRY THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OUT
OVER PALAU. THESE SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL PULL OUT BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH BETWEEN PALAU AND CHUUK
WILL MOVE IN BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND BRING MORE CLOUDS...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DECIDED TO CARRY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION SOUTH OF YAP WILL MOVE INTO PALAU
TODAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

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