From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Nov 22 14:06:52 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAM66ps8032179 for ; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 14:06:52 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oALCcK4i000834; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 00:06:36 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4459092 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 00:06:35 -0600 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAM66ZRk020226 for ; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 00:06:35 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAM66TJs023689 for ; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 00:06:35 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0B9384050021; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 00:06:29 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101122060629.0B9384050021@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 00:06:29 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 257 FXPQ60 PGUM 220606 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 406 PM CHST MON NOV 22 2010 .SYNOPSIS... FORECAST ZONES REMAIN BENEATH DEEP LAYER RIDGING. RADAR SCAN IS VIRTUALLY DEVOID OF SHOWERS AT THE MOMENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GFS TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION BOTH SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL MAINTAIN TRANSITION FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO ISOLATED POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER IS THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM POHNPEI TOWARD CHUUK. && .DISCUSSION... NO CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN BRINGING QPF THROUGH THE FORECAST ZONES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH OTHER MODELS BEING MUCH LESS BULLISH ON QPF. GFS TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST RUN SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE GUAM AND ROTA FORECAST ZONES AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER AND MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY WITH A TRADE-WIND REGIME PREDOMINATING. && .MARINE... TWEAKED NEAR TERM MARINE SWELL GRIDS BASED UPON RECENT OBS FROM THE IPAN BUOY. IPAN BUOY IS COMING IN WITH A DOMINANT SWELL FROM 050 DEGREES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET. WIND WAVES WERE EVIDENT FROM 130 DEGREES WITH A 7 SECOND PERIOD. LONG TERM MARINE SWELL GRIDS REQUIRED MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS. STILL EXPECT HIGHEST SURF TO CONTINUE ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR AS SURF REMAINS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVELS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... MAJURO IS BEGINNING TO DRY OUT AS A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVES FARTHER WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS KOSRAE TO BE SITTING JUST ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORM OVER KOSRAE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH...A FORECAST UPDATE MAY BE REQUIRED. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER POHNPEI TONIGHT. THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND MIDDAY TOMORROW AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES WESTWARD. WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL INDICATES INCREASED SEA HEIGHTS BY THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID LATITUDE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. HIGH SURF IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME SINCE THE SWELL COMPONENTS WILL BE DIVIDED BETWEEN THE NORTH AND EAST. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI WILL REACH CHUUK EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF WENO ISLAND. FOR NOW THE TROUGH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO SHIFT WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AND INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH EAST OF YAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONVECTIVELY QUIET AS IT PASSES YAP AND KOROR TUESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER KOROR AT THE MOMENT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND SUNSET. SIMILAR TO POHNPEI...WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL INDICATES INCREASED SEA HEIGHTS LATER THIS WEEK ON CHUUK...BUT A HIGH SURF EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE SWELL COMPONENTS WILL ALSO BE DIVIDED BETWEEN THE NORTH AND EAST. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.