Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 02:47:06 -0600

699 
WWPS21 NFFN 220600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 22/0846 UTC 2010 UTC.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE [1005 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 178.0W AT
220600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATON AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30C.

SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANISED. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN SECTORS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT REMAINS SUPRESSED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER A 250 RIDGE AXIS AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND ARE GRADUALLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEAST INTO AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR WITH LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

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