From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Nov 23 03:37:42 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAMJbej3021408 for ; Tue, 23 Nov 2010 03:37:41 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAM9tJkT000834; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 13:37:19 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4466479 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 13:37:19 -0600 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAMJbIiQ022651 for ; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 13:37:18 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAMJbCPA001103 for ; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 13:37:18 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 36727405001E; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 13:37:12 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101122193712.36727405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 13:37:12 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 464 FXPQ60 PGUM 221937 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 537 AM CHST TUE NOV 23 2010 .SYNOPSIS... ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR AND SATELLITE. FURTHER EAST...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR POHNPEI. && .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS STILL LIKELY WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI PASSES BY. UKMET/GFS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY. BUT THE POHNPEI DISTURBANCE DOESN'T LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE STRONGER INDICATIONS FROM THE MODELS BEFORE RAISING THE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED. && .MARINE/SURF... HAVE RESTRUCTURED THE MARINE SWELL GRIDS BASED ON LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE AND DATA FROM THE IPAN BUOY. THE BUOY CLEARLY INDICATES PRIMARY SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST...040-050 DEG WITH A 12 SECOND PERIOD. WW3 MAINTAINS THIS PRIMARY NE SWELL FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND BUILDS IT TO 8-9 FEET BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WHEN A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR N-NE FACING REEFS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE TROUGH SITS JUST EAST OF POHNPEI. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR KOSRAE ARE TAPERING WHILE CONVECTION BUILDS NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. THE DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS AT KOSRAE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY TONIGHT. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH...DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. POHNPEI WILL CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES. MAJURO REMAINS DRY THIS MORNING...WITH PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN CLOUDS INCREASE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. A WEDGE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CLOUDS COULD BEGIN BUILDING IN AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH NEAR CHUUK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH. A TROUGH NEAR MAJURO WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN FIGHTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG A TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND PALAU. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...DECIDED TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TODAY. IF CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED AND BEGINS TO GROW...FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS AND TONIGHT FOR PALAU. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.