Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 13:37:12 -0600

464 
FXPQ60 PGUM 221937
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
537 AM CHST TUE NOV 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR AND SATELLITE. FURTHER
EAST...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR
POHNPEI. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
IS STILL LIKELY WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI
PASSES BY. UKMET/GFS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
THURSDAY. BUT THE POHNPEI DISTURBANCE DOESN'T LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE
AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE STRONGER INDICATIONS FROM THE MODELS BEFORE
RAISING THE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED. 

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
HAVE RESTRUCTURED THE MARINE SWELL GRIDS BASED ON LATEST WW3
GUIDANCE AND DATA FROM THE IPAN BUOY. THE BUOY CLEARLY INDICATES
PRIMARY SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST...040-050 DEG WITH A 12 SECOND
PERIOD. WW3 MAINTAINS THIS PRIMARY NE SWELL FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND
BUILDS IT TO 8-9 FEET BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WHEN A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR N-NE FACING REEFS. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH SITS JUST EAST OF POHNPEI. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR 
KOSRAE ARE TAPERING WHILE CONVECTION BUILDS NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. 
THE DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS AT KOSRAE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
DAY WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY TONIGHT. DUE TO 
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH...DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. POHNPEI WILL CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY 
AS THE TROUGH PASSES. MAJURO REMAINS DRY THIS MORNING...WITH 
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN CLOUDS 
INCREASE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. A WEDGE OF ISOLATED 
SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 
CLOUDS COULD BEGIN BUILDING IN AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEATHER ASSOCIATED 
WITH A TROUGH NEAR CHUUK WILL PASS TO THE NORTH. A TROUGH NEAR 
MAJURO WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD 
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE 
BEEN FIGHTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG A TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF 
YAP AND PALAU. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...DECIDED 
TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TODAY. IF 
CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED AND BEGINS TO GROW...FORECAST MAY NEED TO
BE AMENDED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS AND TONIGHT
FOR PALAU.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT

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