Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 16:44:31 -0600

696 
WWPS21 NFFN 222100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 22/2244 UTC 2010 UTC.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE [1008 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.0S 177.5W AT
221800 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATON AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 28C.

SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANISED. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN SECTORS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT REMAINS SUPRESSED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER 250HPA RIDGE AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND ARE GRADUALLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEAST INTO AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR WITH LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

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