From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Nov 23 13:36:32 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAN5aVEa030255 for ; Tue, 23 Nov 2010 13:36:31 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAMFgRiL000969; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 23:36:19 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4473582 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 23:36:19 -0600 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAN5aJne005465 for ; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 23:36:19 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAN5a8Ax029610 for ; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 23:36:19 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 082224050059; Mon, 22 Nov 2010 23:36:07 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101123053608.082224050059@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 23:36:07 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 823 FXPQ60 PGUM 230535 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 335 PM CHST TUE NOV 23 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. SUBSIDENCE WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING 150E. && .DISCUSSION... PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE SO JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORM OF LOWERING POPS FOR TONIGHT AND WED. GFS TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTION SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WED NIGHT AS THE TROUGH NEARS. UKMET HAS DRIED OUT ITS OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY BUT GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE THE LEAD WITH THE MOST MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MAJORITY OF MODELS POINT TO JUST A MARGINAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED NIGHT AND THU. && .MARINE... LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS... INCREASING NORTHEAST SWELLS BEGINNING WED NIGHT. IPAN BUOY SHOWS NORTHEAST SWELL WITH A 13 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 9 FEET BY THANKSGIVING DAY AND MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR N-NE FACING REEFS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... ASCAT WINDS SHOW A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE POHNPEI AREA AND CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS WERE E-SE OF MAJURO. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WERE MOVING WESTWARD AND COVERAGE WAS ON THE LOW END OF SCATTERED. FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE TRACKING THESE FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM. GFS ALSO INDICATES SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD KAPINGAMARANGI ABOUT THANKSGIVING... OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS WAVES 5FT/13SEC. THAT IS PROBABLY ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE MARINE ZONE. PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SLIGHTLY LARGER COMBINED SEAS AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... LOCALLY DEEP CONVECTION POPPED NEAR KOROR PALAU EARLIER TODAY... AND THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED. SATELLITE AND ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE KOROR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE ERRATIC BUT INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS FOR KOROR. THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI WILL MOVE TO THE CHUUK AREA BY WED AND WED NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE PATTERN FAVORS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CHUUK THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. WEATHER FOR YAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY FAIR. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ W. AYDLETT/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.