Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 23:36:07 -0600

823 
FXPQ60 PGUM 230535
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
335 PM CHST TUE NOV 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. SUBSIDENCE WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPRESSING MOST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
APPROACHING 150E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE SO JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORM OF LOWERING POPS FOR TONIGHT AND WED. GFS
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTION SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WED NIGHT AS THE TROUGH NEARS. UKMET HAS DRIED OUT ITS
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY BUT GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE THE LEAD WITH THE
MOST MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MAJORITY OF MODELS POINT TO JUST A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...
INCREASING NORTHEAST SWELLS BEGINNING WED NIGHT. IPAN BUOY SHOWS
NORTHEAST SWELL WITH A 13 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE TO 7 TO 9 FEET BY THANKSGIVING DAY AND MAY REQUIRE
ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR N-NE FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT WINDS SHOW A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE POHNPEI AREA
AND CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS WERE E-SE OF MAJURO. THE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WERE MOVING WESTWARD AND COVERAGE
WAS ON THE LOW END OF SCATTERED. FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE TRACKING
THESE FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM. GFS ALSO INDICATES SHOWERS MIGHT
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD KAPINGAMARANGI ABOUT THANKSGIVING...
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA
THROUGH THE LONGER TERM.

MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS WAVES 5FT/13SEC. THAT IS PROBABLY ON THE
LOW SIDE FOR THE MARINE ZONE. PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SLIGHTLY LARGER COMBINED SEAS AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LOCALLY DEEP CONVECTION POPPED NEAR KOROR PALAU EARLIER TODAY...
AND THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED. SATELLITE AND ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOW A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE KOROR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE ERRATIC BUT INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AT TIMES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS FOR KOROR. THE
TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI WILL MOVE TO THE CHUUK AREA BY WED AND WED
NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE PATTERN FAVORS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CHUUK THROUGH THE LONGER TERM.
WEATHER FOR YAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY FAIR.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/SIMPSON

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