From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Nov 24 03:49:39 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oANJncAc000384 for ; Wed, 24 Nov 2010 03:49:39 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oANHkvNm000834; Tue, 23 Nov 2010 13:49:19 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4484638 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 23 Nov 2010 13:49:19 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oANJnJJQ012891 for ; Tue, 23 Nov 2010 13:49:19 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather.admin.niu.edu (weather.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.47]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oANJnCEY002821 for ; Tue, 23 Nov 2010 13:49:19 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 941F92290011; Tue, 23 Nov 2010 13:49:12 -0600 (CST) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 suspectscore=3 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1011230147 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20101123194912.941F92290011@weather.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2010 13:49:12 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 940 FXPQ60 PGUM 231949 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 549 AM CHST WED NOV 24 2010 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. A WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 148-149E..AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW ON RADAR. && .DISCUSSION... HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR NOW...BUT SHOWERS POPPING OUT NEAR 149E THE LAST 2 HOURS OR SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. GFS HINTS AT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UKMET AND ECMWF KEEP EVERYTHING WELL TO THE SOUTH...AS DOES THE GFS ENSEMBLE. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL. && .MARINE/SURF... LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE HAS SEAS AT 5 FEET THIS MORNING WHILE BUOY HAS A NORTHEAST SWELL AT ABOUT 4 FEET FROM 55 DEG. BUT WITH MODEL SWELL DIRECTION AT 040/050 DEG...BUOY LIKELY A LITTLE BLOCKED BY NORTHERN GUAM. WW3 VERY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BUILDING THE NE SWELL QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THE EVENING FORECAST PACKAGE. SOURCE OF SWELL IS A STRONG FETCH OF 35-40 KT NE WINDS ON THE NW SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH AND WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MAJURO. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER MAJURO TODAY. POHNPEI SITS EAST OF A TROUGH NEAR CHUUK. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AT POHNPEI. CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO KOSRAE AS THE TROUGH NEAR MAJURO PUSHES WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN WILL PASS NORTH OF KOSRAE. MODELS KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY AFTER THE TROUGH ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS MOVES WEST OF POHNPEI WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP THIS MORNING NEAR YAP AND CHUUK AS TROUGHS ARE PRESENT NEAR BOTH LOCATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS YAP TO BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTION SO FORECAST HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS. CHUUK WILL LIKELY SEE MORE ACTION TODAY...TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INCLUDED FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. PALAU IS ENJOYING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE A LITTLE ERRATIC THROUGH THE WEEK SO ISOLATED SHOWERS SEEM REASONABLE FOR NOW. AS THE TROUGHS NEAR CHUUK AND MAJURO PUSH WEST...MINOR TWEAKING OF THE FORECAST MAY BE IN ORDER FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.