Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2010 13:49:12 -0600

940 
FXPQ60 PGUM 231949
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
549 AM CHST WED NOV 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. A WEAK TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTHEAST OF
THE MARIANAS NEAR 148-149E..AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW ON RADAR. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR NOW...BUT SHOWERS POPPING OUT
NEAR 149E THE LAST 2 HOURS OR SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. GFS HINTS
AT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UKMET AND
ECMWF KEEP EVERYTHING WELL TO THE SOUTH...AS DOES THE GFS ENSEMBLE.
WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE HAS SEAS AT 5 FEET THIS MORNING WHILE BUOY HAS
A NORTHEAST SWELL AT ABOUT 4 FEET FROM 55 DEG. BUT WITH MODEL
SWELL DIRECTION AT 040/050 DEG...BUOY LIKELY A LITTLE BLOCKED BY
NORTHERN GUAM. WW3 VERY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BUILDING
THE NE SWELL QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THE EVENING FORECAST PACKAGE.
SOURCE OF SWELL IS A STRONG FETCH OF 35-40 KT NE WINDS ON THE NW
SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTH AND WEST OF
WAKE ISLAND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AS A 
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MAJURO. SHOWERS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER MAJURO TODAY. POHNPEI SITS EAST OF 
A TROUGH NEAR CHUUK. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME 
PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AT POHNPEI. CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY 
BUILDING INTO KOSRAE AS THE TROUGH NEAR MAJURO PUSHES WEST. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN WILL PASS NORTH OF KOSRAE. 
MODELS KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY AFTER THE TROUGH ACROSS THE 
MARSHALL ISLANDS MOVES WEST OF POHNPEI WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP THIS MORNING NEAR YAP AND CHUUK AS TROUGHS 
ARE PRESENT NEAR BOTH LOCATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS YAP TO BE
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTION SO FORECAST HAS ISOLATED
SHOWERS. CHUUK WILL LIKELY SEE MORE ACTION TODAY...TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INCLUDED FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS. PALAU IS ENJOYING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT WILL SEE SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE A LITTLE
ERRATIC THROUGH THE WEEK SO ISOLATED SHOWERS SEEM REASONABLE FOR
NOW. AS THE TROUGHS NEAR CHUUK AND MAJURO PUSH WEST...MINOR
TWEAKING OF THE FORECAST MAY BE IN ORDER FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT

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