Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2010 17:01:07 -0600

562 
WWPS21 NFFN 232300
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 23/2300 UTC 2010 UTC.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE [1007 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.5S 175.5W AT
232100 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATON AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 26C.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN IRREGULAR NEAR THE LLCC FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVES THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SST.

THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, THERE WILL BE
NORE MORE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM. 

ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE [1007 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.8S 168.8E AT
232100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29C.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLTY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FROM SURFACE TO 500 HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
THE 250HPA RIDGE AXIS AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

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