From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Nov 24 14:23:42 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAO6NfgR007120 for ; Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:23:42 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oANHkvtc000834; Wed, 24 Nov 2010 00:22:09 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4491465 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 24 Nov 2010 00:22:06 -0600 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAO6M3d5024979 for ; Wed, 24 Nov 2010 00:22:03 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather.admin.niu.edu (weather.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.47]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAO6LuD6010575 for ; Wed, 24 Nov 2010 00:22:02 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 17F5E2290026; Wed, 24 Nov 2010 00:21:54 -0600 (CST) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 suspectscore=3 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1011230265 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20101124062156.17F5E2290026@weather.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2010 00:21:54 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 119 FXPQ60 PGUM 240621 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 421 PM CHST WED NOV 24 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAKENING TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE FORECAST ZONES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TILTS FROM SW TO NE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TUTT AXIS LIES BETWEEN GUAM AND CHUUK...WHICH PLACES THE MARIANAS BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. BELIEVE TRADE- WIND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS POPS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. && .DISCUSSION... GFS STILL REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH OF THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE DUE IN LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH QPFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THU AND FRI AS A TRADE-WIND REGIME ASSERTS ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... ASCAT AND WINDSAT IMAGERY SHOWS LONG FETCH OF NE GALES HAS PERSISTED NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND FOR THE PAST 36 HOURS OR SO. 23 NOV ALTIMETRY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER SEAS ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE NE OF SAIPAN...SO AGREE WITH THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL TABULAR DATA BRINGING LARGER SWELL INTO SAIPAN WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO GUAM WATERS AROUND DAWN THU MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR HIGH SURF BEGINNING IN ALL SURF ZONES BY TOMORROW MORNING. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH NEAR KOSRAE EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM KOSRAE TO BETWEEN KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO. LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS FEW COLD CLOUD TOPS EAST OF KOSRAE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THIS EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY KEEPS SHOWERS NORTH OF MAJURO AS WELL SO BOTH LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A DRIER TRADE-WIND PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO POHNPEI LATER THURSDAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AFTERWARD...POHNPEI WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO AREAS FARTHER EAST. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES HIGHER SEAS GOING IN TO THE WEEKEND. A LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF MID LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND WILL SEND LARGER SWELL SOUTHWESTWARD. DISPERSION OF SWELL ENERGY SHOULD KEEP RISK OF HIGH SURF LOW ACROSS ALL MICRONESIAN FORECAST POINTS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A TROUGH IS JUST MOVING BY CHUUK. AS A RESULT...MOST CONVECTION IS NOW PAST THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY TRADES TO SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH NEAR YAP IS BEGINNING TO PULSE DOWN SO AM EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT YAP. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL FOR KOROR AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY THU SO ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SIMILAR TO POHNPEI...WAVE WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES BUILDING SEAS BY THU...BUT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY WILL BE DIVIDED BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST COMPONENTS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.