Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:19:46 -0600

684 
FXPQ60 PGUM 242019
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
619 AM CHST THU NOV 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AS EXPECTED...A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY
IN THE ROTA CHANNEL EXTENDING OUT TO THE ENE AS OF 5 AM. OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE ISLANDS OR OUT TO
THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS SHOWS DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AS SOON
AS THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE SKY GOING TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT
AND REMAINING THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
FORSEEABLE FUTURE. 

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
IPAN BUOY STILL SHOWING SEAS AROUND 4 FEET...BUT WW3 SHOWS NE
SWELL COMING IN FROM THE NNE...035 DGREES OR SO. IN SUCH A CASE
NORTHERN GUAM WOULD BLOCK MUCH OF THAT SWELL FROM REACHING THE
BUOY. SEA HGT DATA CLEARLY SHOWS HIGHER NE SWELL ON THE WAY AND
WW3 SHOWS SWELL REACHING 8-9 FEET...SO SURF SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
HAZARDOUS THIS MORNING ON NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA THRU THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST TROUGH IS MOVING THRU
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE TODAY...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR POHNPEI
INTO FRIDAY AND KOSRAE THRU THIS EVENING. A SECOND TROUGH IS
APPROACHING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE OVER MAJURO BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE FOR MAJURO ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH TRACKS
WESTWARD BUT MORE SHOWERS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR POHNPEI INTO
SATURDAY. SINCE THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THIS TROUGH IS
CONCENTRATING NORTH OF 10N...KOSRAE WILL MISS MOST OF THE ACTION
AND REMAIN RELATIVELY FAIR INTO NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND...DRIER NORTHEASTERLY TRADES SHOULD INTRODUCE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI IS GOING TO AFFECT CHUUK BY
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS. THEN THE SECOND ONE
FOLLOWING BEHIND WILL BRING SIMILAR WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
AFTERWARD...DRIER PATTERN FROM THE EAST SHOULD ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.
GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND HAVE SENT LONG-PERIOD
SWELLS TOWARD THE MARIANAS AND WILL ARRIVE AT CHUUK STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE HIGH SURF EVENT ALONG
THE NORTH FACING SHORES. SURF AT OTHER MICRONESIAN LOCATIONS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH HIGH SURF CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD YAP THIS MORNING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...A TUTT
CELL IN THE VICINITY IS ALSO MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER BOTH YAP AND PALAU ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THIS
IN MIND...DECIDED TO ADD SCATTERED WORDING INTO THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST BUT HELD OFF ON THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.