From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Nov 25 04:20:13 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAOKKCsM016396 for ; Thu, 25 Nov 2010 04:20:12 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAOF3BQN000834; Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:19:53 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4497539 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:19:53 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAOKJrjn018863 for ; Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:19:53 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAOKJkng010404 for ; Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:19:52 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 26F933FE085A; Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:19:46 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101124201946.26F933FE085A@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:19:46 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 684 FXPQ60 PGUM 242019 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 619 AM CHST THU NOV 25 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AS EXPECTED...A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE ROTA CHANNEL EXTENDING OUT TO THE ENE AS OF 5 AM. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE ISLANDS OR OUT TO THE EAST. && .DISCUSSION... GFS SHOWS DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AS SOON AS THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE SKY GOING TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND REMAINING THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE. && .MARINE/SURF... IPAN BUOY STILL SHOWING SEAS AROUND 4 FEET...BUT WW3 SHOWS NE SWELL COMING IN FROM THE NNE...035 DGREES OR SO. IN SUCH A CASE NORTHERN GUAM WOULD BLOCK MUCH OF THAT SWELL FROM REACHING THE BUOY. SEA HGT DATA CLEARLY SHOWS HIGHER NE SWELL ON THE WAY AND WW3 SHOWS SWELL REACHING 8-9 FEET...SO SURF SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS MORNING ON NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING REEFS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA THRU THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST TROUGH IS MOVING THRU POHNPEI AND KOSRAE TODAY...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR POHNPEI INTO FRIDAY AND KOSRAE THRU THIS EVENING. A SECOND TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE OVER MAJURO BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FOR MAJURO ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH TRACKS WESTWARD BUT MORE SHOWERS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR POHNPEI INTO SATURDAY. SINCE THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THIS TROUGH IS CONCENTRATING NORTH OF 10N...KOSRAE WILL MISS MOST OF THE ACTION AND REMAIN RELATIVELY FAIR INTO NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DRIER NORTHEASTERLY TRADES SHOULD INTRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI IS GOING TO AFFECT CHUUK BY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS. THEN THE SECOND ONE FOLLOWING BEHIND WILL BRING SIMILAR WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS WELL. AFTERWARD...DRIER PATTERN FROM THE EAST SHOULD ARRIVE BY SUNDAY. GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND HAVE SENT LONG-PERIOD SWELLS TOWARD THE MARIANAS AND WILL ARRIVE AT CHUUK STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE HIGH SURF EVENT ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORES. SURF AT OTHER MICRONESIAN LOCATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HIGH SURF CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD YAP THIS MORNING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...A TUTT CELL IN THE VICINITY IS ALSO MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER BOTH YAP AND PALAU ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO ADD SCATTERED WORDING INTO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST BUT HELD OFF ON THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.