From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Nov 25 15:45:54 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAP7jrGG015333 for ; Thu, 25 Nov 2010 15:45:53 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAOF3Bsj000834; Thu, 25 Nov 2010 01:45:13 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4503133 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 25 Nov 2010 01:45:12 -0600 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAP7jC5R027696 for ; Thu, 25 Nov 2010 01:45:12 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAP7j5J4002206 for ; Thu, 25 Nov 2010 01:45:12 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id B9870144B0001; Thu, 25 Nov 2010 01:45:05 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101125074505.B9870144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 25 Nov 2010 01:45:05 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list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o unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.