Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 25 Nov 2010 14:19:26 -0600

555 
FXPQ60 PGUM 252019
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
619 AM CHST FRI NOV 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE MARIANAS. ONLY TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
OUT EAST TO 160E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY QUIET PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR
MORE WITH NO MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS. GFS/UKMET SHOW GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES PICKING UP TO MODERATE TO FRESH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE/SURF... 
NE SWELL SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 7 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 6-7 FEET SUNDAY. HIGH SURF MAY FINALLY DROP DOWN
BELOW 9 FEET ON SUNDAY...BUT MAY RETURN MON/TUE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SWELL AND WINDS BOTH INCREASE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE SURGE IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU POHNPEI WITH SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A 
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO TONIGHT. KOSRAE IS GOING TO REMAIN UNDER 
RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF THE 
ISLAND. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THRU 
THIS EVENING AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TRADE SURGE PUSHES ACROSS 
THE ISLANDS. DRIER AND STRONGER TRADES FROM THE SURGE WILL PROMOTE 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM EAST TO WEST DURING 
THE WEEKEND AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE 
VICINITY OF CHUUK INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...THE TRADE
SURGE WILL DISPLACE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND AND INTRODUCE DRIER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. LONG-PERIOD
N-NE SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING SURF ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS IN CHUUK STATE
TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. CONVERGING WINDS EAST OF A SLOW-
MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR YAP TODAY...AND PALAU
INTO SATURDAY. THEN DRIER TRADES FROM THE EAST SHOULD BRING
IMPROVEMENT FOR BOTH LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN

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