From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Nov 26 04:19:53 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAPKJp4A019241 for ; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 04:19:52 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAPHiLAX000834; Thu, 25 Nov 2010 14:19:34 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4507152 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 25 Nov 2010 14:19:33 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAPKJXYe009571 for ; Thu, 25 Nov 2010 14:19:33 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAPKJRaN002816 for ; Thu, 25 Nov 2010 14:19:33 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 100C5144B0001; Thu, 25 Nov 2010 14:19:26 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101125201927.100C5144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 25 Nov 2010 14:19:26 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 555 FXPQ60 PGUM 252019 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 619 AM CHST FRI NOV 26 2010 .SYNOPSIS... GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS. ONLY TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OUT EAST TO 160E. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY QUIET PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR MORE WITH NO MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS. GFS/UKMET SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PICKING UP TO MODERATE TO FRESH ON SUNDAY. && .MARINE/SURF... NE SWELL SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 7 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 6-7 FEET SUNDAY. HIGH SURF MAY FINALLY DROP DOWN BELOW 9 FEET ON SUNDAY...BUT MAY RETURN MON/TUE OF NEXT WEEK AS SWELL AND WINDS BOTH INCREASE. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU POHNPEI WITH SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO TONIGHT. KOSRAE IS GOING TO REMAIN UNDER RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLAND. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TRADE SURGE PUSHES ACROSS THE ISLANDS. DRIER AND STRONGER TRADES FROM THE SURGE WILL PROMOTE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE WEEKEND AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF CHUUK INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...THE TRADE SURGE WILL DISPLACE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE ISLAND AND INTRODUCE DRIER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. LONG-PERIOD N-NE SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING SURF ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS IN CHUUK STATE TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. CONVERGING WINDS EAST OF A SLOW- MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR YAP TODAY...AND PALAU INTO SATURDAY. THEN DRIER TRADES FROM THE EAST SHOULD BRING IMPROVEMENT FOR BOTH LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.