Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 25 Nov 2010 18:06:33 -0600

745 
WWPS21 NFFN 260000
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 26/0006 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F [1005 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.2S 167.0E AT
252100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE
CELSIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED AND REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FROM SURFACE TO 500 HPA. SYSTEM LIES TO THE
EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION. 

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.