From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Nov 26 15:17:45 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAQ7Hh1g011550 for ; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 15:17:44 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAPHiLSl000834; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 01:17:26 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4510866 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 01:17:25 -0600 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAQ7HP7h009664 for ; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 01:17:25 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAQ7HItC017635 for ; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 01:17:24 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 995C53FE0853; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 01:17:18 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101126071718.995C53FE0853@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 26 Nov 2010 01:17:18 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 396 FXPQ60 PGUM 260717 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 517 PM CHST FRI NOV 26 2010 .SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND TRADE-WINDS SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MARIANAS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND BUT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. && .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE ON SUNDAY. THESE TRADE- WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. MODELS KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST. && .MARINE... NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TROUGH THE FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS ...SATELLITE ALTIMETRY AND MODEL DATA ALL AGREE THAT SWELL IS A BIT LOWER OVER GUAM AND ROTA THAN FURTHER NORTH. SO LOWERED THE SWELLS IN THE GUAM AND ROTA WATERS AND KEPT THEM UP ACROSS TINIAN AND SAIPAN. HIGH SURF IS STILL EXPECTED FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR GUAM AND ROTA. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A TRADE WIND-DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WITH FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS EXITED MAJURO AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE KOSRAE WITH A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A RAPID CLEARING TREND FOR BOTH MAJURO AND KOSRAE SATURDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING KOSRAE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND PASS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF POHNPEI. NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH RESULTANT COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF AROUND 7 FT ACROSS THE REGION. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A SURFACE TROUGH HAVE MOVED SOUTH AND WEST OF CHUUK WITH A CLEARING TREND EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. MODELS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS SATURDAY ONWARD. CONVERGENCE NEAR A WEAK CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF KOROR IS SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KOROR MARINE ZONE AND ALREADY WELL SOUTH OF YAP. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ENDING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KOROR. INCREASING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE YAP AND PALAU REGION FOR THE LONG TERM. LATEST ALTIMETRY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS WAVE WATCH MODELS HAS SHOWN AN APPRECIABLE TREND DOWNWARD IN SWELL HEIGHT OVER THE CHUUK AREA. THEREFORE...THE MARGINAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR CHUUK ALONG NORTH SHORES. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ003-004. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.