Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 2010 01:17:18 -0600

396 
FXPQ60 PGUM 260717
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
517 PM CHST FRI NOV 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND TRADE-WINDS SHOWERS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE MARIANAS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
WEEKEND BUT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SATURDAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE ON SUNDAY. THESE TRADE-
WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. MODELS KEEP
THINGS FAIRLY DRY SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TROUGH THE FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS
...SATELLITE ALTIMETRY AND MODEL DATA ALL AGREE THAT SWELL IS A
BIT LOWER OVER GUAM AND ROTA THAN FURTHER NORTH. SO LOWERED THE
SWELLS IN THE GUAM AND ROTA WATERS AND KEPT THEM UP ACROSS TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. HIGH SURF IS STILL EXPECTED FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED FOR GUAM AND ROTA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A TRADE WIND-DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER 
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WITH FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE 
OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS EXITED MAJURO AND WILL 
LIKELY PROVIDE KOSRAE WITH A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT 
BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A RAPID CLEARING TREND FOR BOTH 
MAJURO AND KOSRAE SATURDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH 
APPROACHING KOSRAE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND PASS MOSTLY TO THE 
SOUTH OF POHNPEI. NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK
WITH RESULTANT COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF AROUND 7 FT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A SURFACE TROUGH HAVE MOVED SOUTH AND WEST OF 
CHUUK WITH A CLEARING TREND EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BEHIND THIS 
FEATURE. MODELS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS SATURDAY ONWARD. CONVERGENCE NEAR A WEAK CIRCULATION JUST 
SOUTH OF KOROR IS SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST 
OF THE KOROR MARINE ZONE AND ALREADY WELL SOUTH OF YAP. MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ENDING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON FOR KOROR. INCREASING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED 
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE YAP AND PALAU REGION FOR THE LONG TERM. 
LATEST ALTIMETRY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS WAVE WATCH 
MODELS HAS SHOWN AN APPRECIABLE TREND DOWNWARD IN SWELL HEIGHT OVER 
THE CHUUK AREA. THEREFORE...THE MARGINAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS 
CANCELLED FOR CHUUK ALONG NORTH SHORES.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS

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