Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 2010 02:03:18 -0600

719 
WWPS21 NFFN 260600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 26/0802 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S 170.8E AT
260600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION  WAS
RESTRICTED ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM BUT HAS NOT INCREASED
IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FROM SURFACE TO 500
HPA. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION. 

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

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