From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Nov 27 05:39:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAQLdRAf031307 for ; Sat, 27 Nov 2010 05:39:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAPHiLfW000834; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 15:39:06 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4513828 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 15:39:06 -0600 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAQLd6hQ023272 for ; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 15:39:06 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAQLcx3V017454 for ; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 15:39:06 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DC0903FE084E; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 15:38:59 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101126213859.DC0903FE084E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 26 Nov 2010 15:38:59 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 909 FXPQ60 PGUM 262138 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 738 AM CHST SAT NOV 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS...MAINLY NEAR ROTA AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME UPSTREAM AS WELL AS A SHEAR LINE TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH HAS COME ABNORMALLY CLOSE TO THE MARIANAS FOR SO EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON. && .DISCUSSION... SHEAR LINE IS LIABLE TO NUDGE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME IT SHOULD NOT GET HERE ITSELF...LEAVING THE MARIANAS RELATIVELY HIGH AND DRY. PREVIOUS PACKAGE HANDLED THIS WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED. A DRY SEASON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. && .MARINE... MARGINAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY EVENT LOOKED TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET BASED ON THE IPAN BUOY. THEREFORE JUST UPDATED THE ADVISORY TO FRESHEN THE WORDING...SINCE THE FORECAST IN IT LOOKED GOOD. TOTAL COMBINED SEAS AND WINDS ARE BOTH LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT DATA ANALYSIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WIND SURGE IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. ITS LEADING EDGE WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS FOR BOTH CHUUK AND POHNPEI TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY TRADE PATTERN WILL SPREAD WESTWARD FROM KOSRAE INTO BOTH LOCATIONS BY THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST NEAR THE DATE LINE...A TRADE DISTURBANCE AT 17N175E WITH AN ITCZ TRAILING EASTWARD HAS FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE TRADE SURGE. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE STEADILY SLIDING WESTWARD AND COULD BRING WETTER CONDITIONS TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS BY SUNDAY...AND KOSRAE ON MONDAY. A SIMILAR TREND MIGHT EVENTUALLY ARRIVE AT POHNPEI AND CHUUK BY MIDWEEK AS WELL. BUILDING TRADE-WIND WAVES ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERATE HIGHER SEAS FROM CHUUK STATE EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALLS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT NO HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS FINALLY MOVING WEST OF KOROR THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. BY TONIGHT...DRIER TRADE WINDS ALREADY OVER YAP ARE GOING TO PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH PROGRESSING WESTWARD SOUTH OF GUAM. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS FOR KOROR BY MONDAY BUT MIGHT STAY SOUTH OF YAP WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ON MONDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ003-004. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.