Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 2010 15:38:59 -0600

909 
FXPQ60 PGUM 262138
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
738 AM CHST SAT NOV 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS...MAINLY NEAR ROTA AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE SHOWS MORE OF
THE SAME UPSTREAM AS WELL AS A SHEAR LINE TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH
HAS COME ABNORMALLY CLOSE TO THE MARIANAS FOR SO EARLY IN THE
WINTER SEASON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEAR LINE IS LIABLE TO NUDGE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH.
AT THE SAME TIME IT SHOULD NOT GET HERE ITSELF...LEAVING THE
MARIANAS RELATIVELY HIGH AND DRY. PREVIOUS PACKAGE HANDLED THIS
WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED. A DRY SEASON PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY EVENT LOOKED TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON
TARGET BASED ON THE IPAN BUOY. THEREFORE JUST UPDATED THE ADVISORY
TO FRESHEN THE WORDING...SINCE THE FORECAST IN IT LOOKED GOOD.
TOTAL COMBINED SEAS AND WINDS ARE BOTH LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT DATA ANALYSIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE-WIND SURGE IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. ITS 
LEADING EDGE WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS FOR BOTH CHUUK AND 
POHNPEI TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY TRADE PATTERN WILL SPREAD WESTWARD 
FROM KOSRAE INTO BOTH LOCATIONS BY THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST NEAR 
THE DATE LINE...A TRADE DISTURBANCE AT 17N175E WITH AN ITCZ TRAILING 
EASTWARD HAS FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE TRADE SURGE. 
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE STEADILY SLIDING WESTWARD AND COULD BRING 
WETTER CONDITIONS TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS BY SUNDAY...AND KOSRAE ON 
MONDAY. A SIMILAR TREND MIGHT EVENTUALLY ARRIVE AT POHNPEI AND CHUUK 
BY MIDWEEK AS WELL. BUILDING TRADE-WIND WAVES ARE ANTICIPATED TO 
GENERATE HIGHER SEAS FROM CHUUK STATE EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALLS FOR 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT NO HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS FINALLY MOVING WEST OF KOROR THIS 
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE ISLAND 
TODAY. BY TONIGHT...DRIER TRADE WINDS ALREADY OVER YAP ARE GOING TO 
PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ANOTHER SURFACE 
TROUGH PROGRESSING WESTWARD SOUTH OF GUAM. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING 
MORE SHOWERS FOR KOROR BY MONDAY BUT MIGHT STAY SOUTH OF YAP WITH 
MAINLY CLOUDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

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