Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 2010 23:39:52 -0600

026 
FXPQ60 PGUM 270539
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
339 PM CHST SAT NOV 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS
THE MARIANAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLOUDS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS. MODEL DATA DOES SHOW THIS
AREA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. WHILE THERE COULD CONCEIVABLY
BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FIGURE IT WAS TOO MINOR POINT TO
WORRY ABOUT SO LEFT SKIES AT PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE FORECAST. A SHEAR LINE JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD BUT WILL
NOT MAKE IT SOUTH OF 18N. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
KEEP THEM AT 15 TO 20 MPH THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. 

&&

.MARINE...MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONS DID NOT SUPPORT THE
CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN SO
DISCONTINUED THE ADVISORY. MODELS DO HAVE A NORTH SWELL IN THEM SO
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND SURGE HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAIRLY
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM POHNPEI TO MAJURO. A WEAK TRADE
DISTURBANCE TOWARDS THE DATELINE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AT MAJURO...EVENTUALLY PASSING THROUGH
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS MAJURO. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...BUT IS
STILL A WAYS OUT AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR MORE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK IS DRYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRADE-WIND SURGE ACROSS
EASTERN MICRONESIA BUILDS IN ACROSS CHUUK. FARTHER WEST...A
TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARDS YAP AND PALAU. GFS GENERALLY DOWNPLAYS
THE EVENT WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO PALAU TOMORROW EVENING BUT
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF YAP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ACTIVE
CONVECTION TO BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF 8N. SUNNIER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR YAP AND PALAU.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

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