From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Nov 27 13:40:13 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oAR5eClZ026867 for ; Sat, 27 Nov 2010 13:40:13 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAPHiLm3000834; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 23:40:00 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4515161 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 23:39:59 -0600 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAR5dxmG012629 for ; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 23:39:59 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oAR5dqd3009579 for ; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 23:39:59 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id E24F0144B0001; Fri, 26 Nov 2010 23:39:52 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101127053952.E24F0144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 26 Nov 2010 23:39:52 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 026 FXPQ60 PGUM 270539 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 339 PM CHST SAT NOV 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MARIANAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS. MODEL DATA DOES SHOW THIS AREA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. WHILE THERE COULD CONCEIVABLY BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FIGURE IT WAS TOO MINOR POINT TO WORRY ABOUT SO LEFT SKIES AT PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE FORECAST. A SHEAR LINE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD BUT WILL NOT MAKE IT SOUTH OF 18N. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND KEEP THEM AT 15 TO 20 MPH THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. && .MARINE...MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONS DID NOT SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN SO DISCONTINUED THE ADVISORY. MODELS DO HAVE A NORTH SWELL IN THEM SO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A TRADE-WIND SURGE HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAIRLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM POHNPEI TO MAJURO. A WEAK TRADE DISTURBANCE TOWARDS THE DATELINE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AT MAJURO...EVENTUALLY PASSING THROUGH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS MAJURO. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...BUT IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CHUUK IS DRYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRADE-WIND SURGE ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA BUILDS IN ACROSS CHUUK. FARTHER WEST...A TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARDS YAP AND PALAU. GFS GENERALLY DOWNPLAYS THE EVENT WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO PALAU TOMORROW EVENING BUT PASSING JUST SOUTH OF YAP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ACTIVE CONVECTION TO BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF 8N. SUNNIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR YAP AND PALAU. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ003-004. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.